When President Trump returned to office, he promised prosperity. Six months before a midterm election that will likely hinge on economic performance, his own party is growing skeptical about whether he can deliver it.
A wave of new polling reveals the shift. The University of Michigan's May consumer sentiment survey, released Friday, showed Republicans and independent voters hitting their lowest point of confidence in the economy during Trump's second term. Overall sentiment reached an all-time low.
The numbers tell a stark story of eroding support. An AP/NORC poll this week found roughly 6 in 10 Republicans approve of Trump's economic stewardship, down from about 8 in 10 in February. Gallup's consumer confidence measure released Friday showed Republicans' economic outlook at its worst level since Trump took office. A CBS News/YouGov survey found just 36% of Republicans believe Trump's policies are making them financially better off.
What's most striking is where inflation expectations are heading. Among Republicans surveyed by Michigan, long-run inflation expectations have more than doubled on a monthly basis compared to February 2025. The concern extends across parties, but Republicans show particular alarm.
Megan Brenan, a senior editor with Gallup, described the shift as "a crack we're seeing" in GOP confidence. The softening appears concentrated on specific grievances. Disapproval of Trump's handling of rising prices jumped 11 points among Republicans since March, reaching 37%, per CBS News/YouGov data. Gas prices have emerged as a sharper concern, with 10% of Republicans citing them as a top issue in May, up from 4% in April.
The administration pushed back on the downbeat assessment. White House spokesperson Kush Desai said in a statement that Trump acknowledges short-term disruptions but remains committed to tax cuts, deregulation, and energy abundance. The official framing pins some economic strain on the administration's Iran policy, which two-thirds of Republicans in the AP/NORC poll still rate positively on foreign policy grounds.
The timing cuts both ways. Yes, Republicans remain far more likely to support Trump than Democrats are, with his overall approval among GOP voters holding at 72%. A modest dip in economic confidence doesn't automatically flip voters toward the other party. A string of negative polls does not guarantee congressional losses.
But each erosion matters when margins are tight. The midterm hinges on turnout and swing voters. If core Republican enthusiasm softens even slightly on the economy, it could ripple across the landscape. Trump's promise was straightforward: deliver growth and lower prices. Voters in both parties are saying they're not seeing it yet.
Author James Rodriguez: "The cracks in Republican economic confidence are real, and with midterms months away, the GOP can't afford to keep bleeding support from its own base."
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