The war with Iran has hit American drivers where it hurts most. Gas prices have surged roughly $1.50 per gallon since late February, and motorists are furious. President Trump has promised swift relief once a peace deal is struck, suggesting prices will plummet to levels "you've never seen." Energy experts, however, are delivering a far less rosy forecast: even if fighting stopped tomorrow, don't expect to see prewar prices around $3 a gallon anytime soon.
The national average gasoline price sits at $4.55 as of mid-May, according to Denton Cinquegrana, chief oil analyst at Dow Jones Energy. For prices to drop the full $1.50 that has been added since the conflict began, he says, "I think we could kiss that number goodbye for 2026." The math is brutal. Prices spike like rockets but descend like feathers, and the machinery of global oil supply simply cannot be switched back on overnight.
The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 25 percent of the world's seaborne crude oil transits, has effectively been cut off by the conflict. That represents approximately 20 million barrels of oil production per day removed from global markets. Even if hostilities cease immediately, restarting that flow takes far longer than the political headlines suggest.
The oil supply chain moves at a glacial pace by modern standards. Converting crude into usable fuel normally requires 30 to 60 days, involving extraction, transport, refinery processing, and distribution to gas stations. Beyond that mechanical reality lies an even thornier problem: uncertainty about damage to Persian Gulf infrastructure.
Wells, refineries, and ports across the region may have sustained significant harm. Gulf oil operations rely on traditional pumping methods that require longer restart times than American shale wells. Refineries must be brought slowly up to operating temperature. Ships stuck in the region need repositioning, a process that alone could consume three to five weeks given that massive oil tankers move at only 13 knots, or about 14 miles per hour. "You're basically riding a bicycle on water," Cinquegrana observes.
Industry estimates for normalization vary wildly. David Ruisard, senior US products editor at Argus Media, says experts predict anywhere from six months to two years for prices to return to prewar levels, even if the war ended immediately. Cinquegrana's base case is more conservative: he expects recovery to take at least as long as the conflict itself lasts. If the war stretches through June, that's roughly 18 weeks of hostilities, meaning 18 additional weeks for the system to stabilize.
Seasonal pressures will compound the problem. Summer driving season, beginning with the Memorial Day weekend, traditionally increases fuel demand. AAA projects 45 million Americans will travel at least 50 miles from home during that period, potentially setting a Memorial Day weekend travel record despite elevated prices.
Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, offers a glimmer of immediate relief. A peace deal would likely trigger a quick price drop within two to three days based on sentiment and market optics. But he cautiously suggests summer prices might hover in the mid-to-upper $3 range if the Strait of Hormuz reopened tomorrow. If it remains closed, prices could continue creeping toward $5 and potentially exceed historical records.
Different fuel types face different timelines for recovery. Airlines can reduce flights and shift routes to offset elevated jet fuel costs, potentially allowing those prices to normalize faster than gasoline or diesel. Gasoline itself may recover sooner than diesel, since US diesel production has been relatively tight for several years compared to gasoline supplies.
Even more troubling for consumers is the behavior of global oil markets once supply returns. Countries currently draining strategic reserves will need to replenish them. Some nations, including Pakistan, India, South Korea, and Japan, may begin building new reserves as insurance against future supply shocks. That demand could keep prices elevated well beyond the conflict's end.
A war premium is already baked into current prices, similar to what markets experienced during the second Gulf War in the early 2000s. History offers limited guidance, however. The Russian-Ukraine conflict provides the closest recent parallel, with prices spiking but eventually moderating once markets realized Russian oil production didn't collapse to zero. The Iran situation differs in meaningful ways, making past patterns less reliable as predictors.
Author James Rodriguez: "Trump's pump-price promises are politically convenient but economically naive. Even a peace deal signed tomorrow can't turn a supertanker around in a week."
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