Donald Trump walked across the White House lawn Tuesday evening as Abbas' "Dancing Queen" played, past cornhole and oversized Connect Four, to celebrate with members of Congress at the annual picnic. One notable absence stung: Thomas Massie, the Kentucky congressman defeated in a primary that Trump had orchestrated.
"We won the Massie thing," Trump announced to picnic guests. "He was a bad guy. He deserves to lose."
It was the latest display of Trump's grip on the Republican Party, tightened through a revenge campaign that has grown fiercer in his second term. Critics and even some allies increasingly worry that consolidating power through vendettas may cost him something more valuable: the votes he needs to govern.
The problem is arithmetic. With razor-thin majorities in both chambers, Trump requires cooperation from the very Republicans whose careers he has systematically destroyed. Massie joins a growing roster of purged dissenters, including Liz Cheney, Adam Kinzinger, Justin Amash, Bob Corker, and Jeff Flake from his first term. This cycle brought losses in Indiana, where five state senators lost seats after resisting Trump's demands on congressional redistricting, and Louisiana, where Senator Bill Cassidy fell in a primary after voting to convict Trump during his second impeachment trial.
The Massie defeat came at record expense in a congressional primary. Trump's handpicked challenger, former Navy Seal Ed Gallrein, crushed the incumbent after Massie questioned the president on spending, war powers, and the handling of Jeffrey Epstein files.
Rather than fade quietly, the defeated are becoming obstacles. Massie declared in his concession speech that he had "seven months left in Congress" and would continue pushing the Epstein Files Transparency Act, which had already exposed numerous powerful figures in its first six months. Cassidy took it further, throwing his support behind a Democratic war powers resolution to end the Iran war within 72 hours of his own primary loss, helping break a seven-vote Senate losing streak.
Senator Thom Tillis, faced with a Trump primary threat, has broken from the president on various issues. Marjorie Taylor Greene, once a Trump ally, quit Congress and now accuses him of abandoning "America First" principles over the Epstein files dispute.
Unbowed, Trump has threatened retribution against Senator Rand Paul and Representative Lauren Boebert for supporting Massie, calling Boebert "weak-minded" and "very difficult." He also targeted Representative Brian Fitzpatrick for voting "against me all the time."
Kurt Bardella, a former Republican congressional aide who switched to the Democratic Party, sketched the political trap Trump has set for himself. "If you're going to want to do anything for the rest of the calendar year, you're gonna need their votes and you've just torched them," he said of Massie and Cassidy. "These very men who have now every reason to stick it to him have the power to stop his agenda for the rest of the year and face no consequences because there's no election hanging over their head any more."
The vengeful consolidation carries a second, deeper risk: November's midterm elections. While Trump commands intense loyalty within his base, his national approval rating has dropped to 37 percent according to a New York Times/Siena poll, and Republicans trail Democrats 50 percent to 39 percent on the generic congressional ballot.
Republicans face a catch-22 of their own making. Trump is their primary superpower, yet potentially their general election kryptonite. Conservative author Charlie Sykes observed the trap: "If you're a Republican, you not only can't do the right thing, you can't do the smart thing. You're facing these massive headwinds, these crashing polls, a surge in the cost of living, and Trump is demanding absolute loyalty and has made it clear that if you try to move away from him, your political career as a Republican is over."
The contradiction crystallized this week when Trump endorsed Ken Paxton, the scandal-plagued Texas attorney general who has been both impeached and indicted, over incumbent Senator John Cornyn in a primary runoff. Defending Paxton in an expensive state like Texas would drain resources from genuine battlegrounds like North Carolina, Georgia, Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Even victory would be hollow.
When asked how Republicans would react, Trump shrugged. "They'll be all right with it. They want to win. I know how to win. Some of them don't know how to win."
Republicans are not all right with it. The decision signaled that Trump prioritizes personal loyalty over party interests, a gesture so dramatic that even supporters struggle to defend it.
Author James Rodriguez: "Trump has built a machine that crushes dissent in primaries, but he's discovering that dead opponents are easier to manage than living ones who still hold a vote."
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