Xavier Becerra grinned as he arrived at a south Los Angeles soul food restaurant on a Tuesday morning, flanked by firebrand Texas congresswoman Jasmine Crockett, who had flown in to endorse his campaign. The message to the Black community leaders and union workers gathered for breakfast was simple: voters should choose credentials over gimmicks.
Yet for Democrats watching from across the country, California's race to replace term-limited Governor Gavin Newsom has felt less like a headline event and more like a minor league game when everyone expected the World Series. The state that once sent Arnold Schwarzenegger to the governor's mansion lacks what insiders call "main-character energy" in 2024.
The chaos didn't arrive by accident. A Kamala Harris-sized void shaped the field when Trump's victory over her last year raised hopes she might return home to run. She formally ruled that out in July. Democratic heavyweights including U.S. Senator Alex Padilla and Attorney General Rob Bonta declined to jump in. By June's primary, more than a half-dozen Democrats remained in contention, none commanding meaningful support.
Becerra had wallowed at 3 percent just weeks earlier, but as ballots trickled in, he found himself locked in a fierce three-way race with billionaire investor Tom Steyer, who had spent over $190 million of his own money, and Steve Hilton, a British-born Fox News personality backed by Donald Trump. California's quirky primary system advances the top two vote-getters regardless of party affiliation, meaning two Republicans could theoretically lock Democrats out of November entirely.
The field itself defied recent precedent. Congressman Eric Swalwell initially surged on endorsements until several women accused him of sexual misconduct and assault. He denied the allegations but withdrew from the race and resigned from Congress. Former Congresswoman Katie Porter, San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, ex-Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, former State Controller Betty Yee, State Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond, and others remained in contention, each polling below 20 percent.
Beneath the circus lie deeper questions Democrats have not answered. "The Democratic party is really struggling to figure out who it is and what it is," said Mike Madrid, former political director of the California Republican party and now a prominent anti-Trump commentator. "In the Trump era, especially in a state as blue as California, the party has defined itself almost entirely on what it is against and not what it's for."
The underlying friction centers on California's affordability crisis. Sky-high housing costs, a hostile federal government, and worsening natural disasters have infused the race with an existential question: is the California dream broken? Lorena Gonzalez, president of the California Federation of Labor Unions, warned that without challenging the current economic system, wealth inequality will continue to expand. "We have to do it in California," she said, "so the rest of the nation can see that it's possible."
At a Steyer event in east Los Angeles, Ruby Ortega, a 50-year-old healthcare aide, articulated the desperation driving many voters. Struggling to pay rent and put gas in her car, she said things needed to change. She liked Steyer's plan to tax the wealthy more, but was also drawn to Becerra's record of filing 122 lawsuits against the Trump administration as attorney general.
Republicans sensed an opening. Hilton's ads feature images of Governor Newsom, Kamala Harris, and Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass, urging voters to turn the page on "years of Democrat failure." In Los Angeles itself, Spencer Pratt, a former reality TV villain and Republican who lost his home in the Palisades fire, is attempting to unseat Bass by tapping into anti-establishment fury.
The Democratic National Committee chair expressed worry in February about Democrats shooting "ourselves in the foot." Rusty Hicks, chair of the state Democratic party, acknowledged the "twists and turns" of a primary he described as "in many ways, crazy." Many Democrats are actually holding onto their ballots, waiting for the field to settle before casting votes.
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, offering a centrist approach he says has worked to reduce homelessness and increase affordable housing, warned that if the next governor doesn't challenge Sacramento's status quo, "we are going to lose the trust of the electorate and end up with a Republican governor in eight years. Maybe four."
Dan Schnur, who teaches political communications at USC, UC Berkeley, and Pepperdine, captured the moment plainly: "There's simply no precedent in modern California political history for a field this big or this amorphous."
Author James Rodriguez: "This mess is what happens when a party loses its north star and voters lose faith in what they're supposed to believe in."
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