The United States and Iran are on the brink of signing a ceasefire agreement that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, lift an American naval blockade, and launch new nuclear negotiations, according to a U.S. official briefed on the draft terms. The two countries could announce the deal as early as Sunday, though final details remain unsettled and the agreement has not yet been inked by either side.
The centerpiece is a 60-day memorandum of understanding that hinges on a simple formula: Iran performs, America rewards. In exchange for clearing mines it laid in the strait and allowing shipping to resume unobstructed, the Trump administration would lift its blockade on Iranian ports and grant waivers allowing Tehran to sell oil on global markets. The official acknowledged the economic benefit to Iran but emphasized the relief it would provide to oil markets worldwide.
The arrangement reflects Trump's stated negotiating principle of what officials call "relief for performance." Iran had pushed for immediate unfreezing of its assets and permanent sanctions removal, but the U.S. side rejected that approach, insisting on tangible Iranian actions first.
Behind the agreement stands a coalition of regional mediators led by Pakistan's Field Marshal Asim Munir, who spent the weekend in Tehran pressing for a breakthrough. Trump held a conference call Saturday with leaders of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Egypt, Turkey, and the UAE to gauge support. All endorsed the framework, including the UAE's hawkish president Mohammed bin Zayed, according to sources familiar with the discussion.
Nuclear issues represent the thorniest element of the accord. The draft commits Iran to forswear nuclear weapons and enter talks on suspending uranium enrichment and eliminating its stockpile of highly enriched uranium. Iran has offered verbal commitments through mediators about what concessions it might accept, though those pledges remain unverified by American officials. The U.S. agreed to negotiate sanctions relief and unfrozen funds during the 60-day window, but implementation of those steps would only occur as part of a comprehensive final agreement with verifiable compliance measures.
American military forces mobilized in recent months would remain in the region during the interim period and depart only if a lasting deal comes together.
The draft also stipulates an end to the war between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu raised concerns during a Saturday call with Trump, flagging both that provision and other aspects of the agreement. A U.S. official characterized the exchange as respectful, with Netanyahu making his case in a deferential manner.
To address Israeli security worries, the framework specifies that the ceasefire would not be one-sided. If Hezbollah attempts to rearm or launch attacks, Israel retains the right to take preventive action. As one U.S. official put it: "If Hezbollah behaves, Israel will behave."
Trump has wavered this week between pursuing diplomacy and considering massive military strikes against Iran. By Saturday evening, he was leaning toward a negotiated path forward. The White House aims to announce a finalized deal Sunday, though officials acknowledge the agreement could unravel if either side walks away from the table.
Iran's economic desperation may work in Washington's favor. Officials believe Tehran's financial squeeze provides strong incentive to complete a full agreement that would permanently lift sanctions and release frozen funds. The deal itself could collapse before 60 days if the U.S. judges Iran is not genuinely committed to nuclear talks.
Trump's advisers indicate that if Iran meets his nuclear demands, the president is prepared to substantially reset the U.S. relationship with Tehran and offer economic opportunities he views as substantial. The coming weeks will test whether Iran's government believes changing course serves its national interest.
Author James Rodriguez: "This deal is premised on Iran blinking first, and betting the economic pain will keep them honest through a grueling negotiation cycle."
Comments