Donald Trump's iron control over the Republican Party faces a genuine challenge on Tuesday, with primary contests across six states putting his political muscle to the test. Three races in particular will show whether a Trump endorsement remains an automatic ticket to victory or whether his sway has begun to slip.
The Kentucky House race between Representative Thomas Massie and Trump-backed challenger Ed Gallrein, a retired Navy SEAL, stands as the most visible battlefield. Trump traveled to Kentucky to campaign for Gallrein, yet Massie has refused to back down. The race has become the most expensive House primary in recent years, with more than $30 million in advertising spending fueled largely by Trump allies seeking to remove one of the president's most consistent Republican critics.
Massie earned Trump's enmity by opposing major administration priorities, campaigning for the release of the Epstein files, and opposing the Iran conflict. Known in Washington as "Mr. No" for his history of rebelling against Republican leadership, Massie has staked his survival on his record of independence rather than party loyalty.
The Georgia governor's race presents another test of Trump's endorsement power. Rick Jackson, a billionaire with deep pockets, entered the Republican primary after Trump had already endorsed Lt. Gov. Burt Jones. Jackson has since spent $83 million of his own money, saturating the airwaves with advertisements attacking Jones as a career politician. Even with Trump's backing, Jones faces a crowded field that may force the race into a June runoff.
Trump has steered clear of Georgia's Republican Senate primary, where the winner will face Democrat Jon Ossoff. That race features three serious contenders: Representatives Mike Collins and Buddy Carter, plus Derek Dooley, a former football coach whom Gov. Brian Kemp is actively supporting. The field is likely to produce another runoff.
In Alabama, Trump endorsed Representative Barry Moore for the Senate seat being vacated by retiring Senator Tommy Tuberville. Yet the endorsement has not cleared the field. Attorney General Steve Marshall and retired Navy SEAL Jared Hudson remain competitive, and the race could extend to a June runoff as well.
The clearest picture of Trump's remaining strength comes from Kentucky's Senate race, where Representative Andy Barr is running to succeed Mitch McConnell. Trump's endorsement appears decisive there: Nate Morris, Barr's main rival, withdrew from the race this month after the Trump backing materialized.
Biden has made only limited moves since leaving office but broke his silence this month to endorse Keisha Lance Bottoms, a former Atlanta mayor and administration official, in Georgia's Democratic gubernatorial primary. Bottoms appears well positioned to place first, though the crowded field could still produce a runoff.
Pennsylvania's most competitive Democratic primary involves four candidates competing in the Lehigh Valley to challenge Republican Representative Ryan Mackenzie, who won by just 4,000 votes in 2024. Firefighters union president Bob Brooks has assembled an unusual coalition that includes both Gov. Josh Shapiro and Senator Bernie Sanders, yet he faces determined challengers, including Ryan Crosswell, a former Justice Department lawyer backed by a liberal veterans group.
Two Georgia Supreme Court races on Tuesday carry outsized significance for Democrats nationwide. With eight of nine current justices appointed by Republican governors, Democrats have backed challengers using high-profile support from former President Barack Obama and Vice President Kamala Harris.
Oregon and Idaho also hold primaries Tuesday. Idaho Gov. Brad Little appears set for an easy Trump-endorsed path to a third term, while Oregon Gov. Tina Kotek faces multiple Democratic challengers and a crowded Republican field that includes Chris Dudley, a former professional basketball player backed financially by Nike co-founder Phil Knight.
Author Sarah Mitchell: "Trump's endorsement is no longer a get-out-of-jail card when a rival has $80 million and zero regard for party tradition."
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