President Trump returned from China expressing uncertainty about whether to proceed with a $14 billion weapons package for Taiwan, a signal that caught allies off guard and triggered fresh concerns about American commitment to the self-governing island.
The freeze on the arms deal, which would include missiles and advanced air defense systems, comes after Trump discussed the matter in what he called "great detail" with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Trump made his hesitation clear during the flight back to Washington, telling reporters the last thing the U.S. needed was "a war that's 9,500 miles away."
Xi had warned Trump at the start of their talks about the potential for "conflicts" over Taiwan, and Trump appeared to absorb that message. When pressed on the blocked weapons package, Trump acknowledged that a 1982 U.S. policy pledged not to consult Beijing about Taiwan arms sales, but he dismissed the longstanding agreement as outdated. "What am I going to do, say I don't want to talk to you about it because I have an agreement wrote in 1982?" he said. "No, we discussed arms sales."
The ambiguity has rattled Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea, all of whom depend on American military support as a counterweight to Chinese power in the region. Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who has taken a harder line on Taiwan security than Washington appears willing to match, received a call from Trump aboard Air Force One in which he gave her a "detailed" briefing on the Xi talks. The gesture suggested Trump wanted to manage expectations among nervous allies.
Trump also mentioned he would need to speak with "the person who is running Taiwan" about the arms sales issue, a remark that underscores his transactional approach to diplomacy but would likely infuriate Beijing if carried out. Any direct consultation with Taiwan President Lai Ching-te would signal a level of political recognition that China's government views as provocative.
The political stakes in Taipei are complicated. Although Taiwan's pro-autonomy Democratic Progressive Party controls parliament, securing funding for the weapons package proved difficult. Lawmakers took months to appropriate $25 billion to cover both the $14 billion pending deal and an earlier $11 billion package Trump approved last year. Taiwan finally approved that funding earlier this month, only to face potential rejection from Trump himself.
Xi had previously warned Trump against further arms deliveries to Taiwan during a February phone call, reportedly after the earlier $11 billion deal was announced. That pattern suggests Beijing views weapons transfers as a litmus test of Trump's willingness to prioritize his relationship with China over his formal commitments to Taiwan.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio moved quickly to reassure anxious capitals, affirming that official U.S. policy on Taiwan remained unchanged. But Trump's public wavering undermined that message, reinforcing a central worry among Taiwan's supporters: that Trump sees the island as far less important to his strategic calculus than it is to Xi's.
Author James Rodriguez: "Trump's sudden doubt about a weapons package already in the pipeline tells you everything about where his priorities lie on Taiwan: it's negotiable leverage, not principle."
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