President Trump is governing as though he will never answer to voters again, making high-stakes bets that his party will have to pay for long after he leaves office. With approval ratings sinking to second-term lows, his signature initiatives are calcifying into political liabilities that could haunt Republicans for years.
The economic damage is already visible. A Fox News poll shows Democrats now lead Republicans on handling the economy by 4 percentage points, the first time the GOP has trailed on its strongest political issue since 2010. As gas prices climb past $4 a gallon, Trump has told Americans to expect higher costs for an unspecified stretch of time to achieve a nuclear-free Iran. A Reuters/Ipsos survey found 78% of voters call gas prices a "very big concern," with 77% blaming Trump directly.
Virginia has become the laboratory for two Trump initiatives unraveling simultaneously. On Tuesday, voters approved a redistricting referendum that will flip the state's congressional map from a 6-5 Democratic edge to 10-1. That erases the five-seat gerrymander Trump engineered in Texas last summer, the move that sparked a nationwide redistricting arms race. Meanwhile, the aftershocks from Edom, Musk's federal workforce slash, continue rippling through the state. Nearly 300,000 workers remain fired from the cost-cutting initiative, with many concentrated in Virginia, where Democrats won full control of state government in November and weaponized that power to redraw districts against Republican interests.
Trump's tariff agenda has become an anchor rather than a sail. He marketed "Liberation Day" tariffs as an industrial Renaissance strategy that would resurrect American manufacturing, secure favorable trade deals, and fill federal coffers with revenue. Instead, the Supreme Court struck down his tariffs, crippling his negotiating leverage and forcing the government to begin refunding more than $166 billion in illegal duties. Trump lashed out at the Court on Friday, suggesting that one additional sentence blocking refunds could have saved hundreds of billions.
The fracturing over Iran policy signals deeper Republican trouble ahead. Tucker Carlson issued an extraordinary apology this week for years of Trump advocacy. Marjorie Taylor Greene and Alex Jones have joined a growing chorus of MAGA-world dissidents breaking ranks over the war. The anti-war coalition that delivered Trump his 2024 victory, young voters and "no forever wars" advocates among them, is fragmenting as military escalation continues.
The White House countered with a statement touting that Trump's federal workforce reduction has cut employment to 1960s levels and that tariffs have reduced the trade deficit and spurred manufacturing investment. A spokesperson added that Trump's diplomatic efforts with Iran would ultimately prove vindicated.
Republicans face a longer shadow than the midterms. Vice President Vance, the frontrunner to become the next GOP nominee, carries the worst approval rating of any VP at this stage of a term. Trump has shattered institutional norms across 15 months, constructing what amounts to an imperial presidency. Democrats will inherit that transformed executive power the next time they control Washington, and nothing suggests they will hesitate to deploy it.
Author James Rodriguez: "Trump is cashing checks his party will have to cover for a decade."
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