California's reserves of jet fuel have plummeted to levels unseen since 2023, with supplies now sitting just above 2.6 million barrels as conflict in the Middle East continues to ripple through global energy markets. The state held 3.2 million barrels two years ago, according to data from the California Energy Commission.
The squeeze reflects a dramatic shift in where California sources its oil. Foreign suppliers now account for 61.1 percent of the state's crude intake in 2025, a sharp contrast to the early 1990s when state-owned refineries provided nearly half. Most of that foreign oil now comes from Asia, a change researchers tie to California's strict air quality regulations.
Disruptions in the Middle East have turbocharged the problem. The U.S. and Israel's conflict with Iran has thrown a wrench into supply chains across Asia, which imported more than 14 million barrels daily of Middle Eastern crude last year. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping corridor for oil tankers, has declined sharply.
The price impact has been swift and stinging. Jet fuel that hovered around $2.30 per gallon in major U.S. markets during the first two months of 2026 has surged to $4.19 per gallon as of late April. At Los Angeles International Airport, recent quotes hit nearly $15 per gallon.
The California Energy Commission acknowledged the pressure, noting that while global supplies remain tight, the U.S. has some advantages over other regions thanks to domestic refining capacity and crude reserves. The agency said it is monitoring conditions closely and coordinating with airlines and other stakeholders to identify risks and potential responses.
Airlines have begun passing costs to passengers. Delta, Southwest, and JetBlue have increased baggage fees, while other carriers are tacking on fuel surcharges to offset higher operating expenses.
Travel experts say the supply crunch is unlikely to ground planes entirely. But cancellations are coming. Clint Henderson, a travel analyst with the Points Guy, expects carriers to eliminate shorter regional routes that generate thinner margins before cutting major hubs. The math is simple: demand from travelers remains unchanged, but available seats are shrinking, which means fares will keep climbing.
"Some of the shorter-haul flights that are not super profitable will likely be cut first," Henderson said. "We haven't seen any letup in demand from passengers. So you've got the same amount of people wanting to travel, but you've got fewer seats available. That's driving prices higher and prices are already higher."
Author James Rodriguez: "This is less about whether planes will fly and more about who can afford to be on them, a reality that won't change unless the Middle East does."
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