Arizona voters head to the polls today in a primary contest that will reshape the state's political landscape and test whether Donald Trump's influence over Republican candidates remains as potent as ever, even as his rhetoric on election fraud faces a harder sell in a swing state he lost.
The race for governor pits Rep. Andy Biggs, the Trump-backed former chair of the House Freedom Caucus, against fellow Rep. David Schweikert and others in a contest where Republicans smell opportunity. Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs is among the most vulnerable incumbents seeking re-election nationwide, and the GOP sees a genuine path to flipping the seat. Biggs has Trump's formal endorsement, but his calculation has shifted since his days of relentlessly questioning the 2020 election outcome. Now eyeing a general election in a battleground state, he has largely moved past that material, a telling sign of how that particular message plays differently when the stakes move from a primary to a general election.
The Democratic campaign apparatus is banking on turning Biggs' Trump alignment into a liability in a state where the former president lost twice. Whether that strategy works may hinge on whether Hobbs can remind persuadable voters that she has governed successfully during an economically tumultuous period.
Arizona's secretary of state race carries outsized importance for what comes next. The winner will serve as the state's chief election officer during the 2028 presidential race, a position that will hold real power over how the contest is administered. Two Republicans are fighting for the nomination: state Rep. Alexander Kolodin and former state party chair Gina Swoboda. Kolodin was a key player in the post-2020 legal challenges orchestrated by Trump allies and has backing from Turning Point USA and a slate of conservative members of Congress from Arizona. Swoboda has taken a different tack, framing her position on 2020 as accepting the court outcomes while maintaining that election administration problems existed. Trump has notably avoided endorsing in this race, a rare moment of restraint that may reflect the sensitivity around how the secretary of state position itself affects election integrity arguments.
In the first congressional district vacated by Schweikert, former NFL kicker Jay Feely is running on the Republican side with Trump's backing. The Democratic primary is considerably more competitive, with two candidates who faced off in a tightly contested 2024 primary now renewing their contest: former state Rep. Amish Shah and former journalist Marlene Galán-Woods. Shah has support from former GOP state House Speaker Rusty Bowers and several ex-colleagues, while Galán-Woods has assembled an impressive roster of Democratic heavyweights including Sen. Mark Kelly, Attorney General Kris Mayes, and Secretary of State Adrian Fontes. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has elevated Galán-Woods as a top-tier candidate and recently coordinated ad spending with her campaign.
Iran Conflict Spirals as Trump Weighs Options
Beyond Arizona, the Trump administration is grappling with a deteriorating situation in Iran that threatens to spiral into something far messier than the controlled military operation the president has publicly described. A ceasefire that held in April has fractured, and a memorandum of understanding signed last month to end the conflict has essentially collapsed, according to administration officials. The Iranian regime has demonstrated it retains sufficient military capability to inflict American casualties, a reality that contradicts Trump's repeated claims of victory.
Enraged by the deaths of U.S. service members, Trump has vowed crushing retaliation. Yet each escalation risks drawing the conflict out indefinitely, transforming what he characterized as a winning strategy into a grinding stalemate. A senior White House official described yesterday's situation as a "time of ambiguity," a bland phrase that masks real strategic confusion about how to end the fighting without appearing to capitulate.
The challenge for Trump is multifaceted. The Iranian regime doesn't need to defeat the United States militarily; it merely needs to survive and continue fighting. Meanwhile, as the midterm campaign season approaches, the American public is signaling it wants proof that an end is actually in sight. A war of Trump's making risks becoming both a military quagmire and a political liability at home, complicating his messaging ahead of what will be a consequential election cycle.
Author Sarah Mitchell: "Arizona's primary shows how Trump's election fraud message is losing traction where it matters most, even as his endorsements still carry weight in GOP primaries. Meanwhile, the Iran situation is setting up exactly the kind of indefinite commitment Trump once criticized as foolish nation-building."
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