Sam Burns arrived at Royal Birkdale by accident and is leaving as the man to beat. The American shot a five-under 65 on Saturday to reach 10-under par, pushing two clear of Ryan Fox and Kim Si-woo heading into Sunday's finale on a day when just 12 of the final 40 competitors managed to break par.
Burns wasn't supposed to be here at all. His wife Caroline's due date was Tuesday. But his daughter Belle arrived 11 days early, freeing him to make the transatlantic trip to northwest England. "This golf tournament was, honestly, so far off of my radar and expectations of playing," Burns said. "Caroline's the one that really encouraged me to come over and play. She basically said 'I've got this' at home. 'Go over there and give it your best', and here we are."
That timing has fueled talk in golf circles about the so-called nappy factor, a loose theory that new fathers perform above their normal level in tournaments. Burns was amused. "If I was aware of that, I'd have like eight kids by now, I think," he said.
His emergence as the frontrunner comes as the championship descends into melodrama. Rory McIlroy has taken aim at Bryson DeChambeau over a two-shot penalty the American received for a rules violation on the second round's fifth hole. Despite the controversy, DeChambeau remains very much in contention at six-under after posting 69 in the third round, alongside Ludvig Åberg. Tommy Fleetwood trails by five shots.
The morning wave proved decisive Saturday. Playing in calmer conditions at 10:30am, some five hours and 20 minutes before the leaders, Fox took full advantage of softer greens and minimal wind to card a 62, the third of the tournament. The 39-year-old New Zealander rocketed up the leaderboard from eight shots back at even par to position himself as Burns' closest challenger.
"The course is brilliant," Fox said of Royal Birkdale. "It's obviously very firm and fast. In the mornings the greens are a little bit softer. If you roll it well, you feel like you hole everything."
Scottie Scheffler, last year's champion, remains in the mix at four-under but continues to squander opportunities. For the third straight day he couldn't capitalize on his position, a frustration he attributed to the afternoon's stiffer conditions. "There's great rounds out there around this golf course," Scheffler said. "It's incredible how the conditions change from morning to afternoon."
The home contingent largely faltered. Robert MacIntyre finished at three-under after a level par round, while Tyrrell Hatton slipped to plus-one with a four-over 74. Matt Wallace and Alex Fitzpatrick both lost ground. Tommy Fleetwood proved the exception among the British challengers, though he too showed frustration with his closing stretch, finishing at five-under.
Burns has credentials for the moment. He finished seventh at the Masters this year and second at the U.S. Open. Scheffler sees the championship as inevitable for his close friend. "Sam's a guy that's been on the last few Ryder Cups, last few Presidents Cups, and he's got a ton of talent," Scheffler said. "For me, it's just a matter of time until he gets it done in one of these."
The oddsmakers agree. Burns has shifted from 35-1 two weeks ago to favorite for his first major. What remains to be written is whether a man who stumbled into Royal Birkdale at the last moment will stumble straight into one of golf's most elusive achievements.
Author James Rodriguez: "A new father playing because his wife shipped him off anyway, leading a major championship at Royal Birkdale, while the sport's biggest names bicker behind him, is exactly the kind of story golf needs right now."
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