Senate Republicans are bracing for a messy funding fight that could trap them in a pre-election crisis. Behind closed doors, GOP senators have aired deep anxieties about Democrats weaponizing the appropriations process to force another government shutdown just weeks before voters head to the polls.
The worry is not abstract. The Senate endured three shutdowns in the past year alone, and the annual budget process has devolved into partisan warfare. Majority Leader John Thune has made clear to colleagues that averting a funding emergency before the midterms is non-negotiable. Some Republicans are already floating a short-term continuing resolution to sidestep the whole ordeal until after November.
The complications are piling up. Mitch McConnell's medical absence from the Senate removes a heavyweight negotiator at a critical moment. The Appropriations Committee has only a one-vote Republican margin, which means losing a single GOP senator could sink a bill. McConnell also chairs the defense appropriations subcommittee, putting him at the center of one of the costliest spending battles. His absence has already forced delays in committee markups.
Not everyone on the Republican side wants to punt. Appropriations Chair Susan Collins insists on sticking with the regular funding process rather than resorting to a stopgap measure. But Collins has grown frustrated with Democrats, who she says are refusing to back even the bipartisan bills their own members helped write. Vice Chair Patty Murray has pledged to vote against all appropriations bills, a move Collins finds contradictory to how she herself operated when roles were reversed.
The Democrats are equally dug in. They've rejected Republicans' hefty budget requests, particularly the Trump administration's $1.5 trillion defense spending ask. They also pushed back on a supplemental funding package worth $87.6 billion, much of it earmarked for costs tied to conflict with Iran. Murray told reporters last month that Republicans need to be more reasonable or Democrats simply won't sign off.
The calendar makes everything worse. The government runs out of money on September 30, just over a month before the midterm elections. The Senate has already scheduled itself out of session for all of October, giving members time to campaign. Any shutdown between now and then would derail that schedule and force senators back to Washington at the worst possible political moment.
History suggests the wounds are fresh. Last October, a shutdown lasted more than ten weeks after Democrats demanded extensions to expiring Obamacare tax credits. Earlier this year, another brief shutdown erupted over Homeland Security funding following fatal ICE shootings. That department remained unfunded for months afterward, though it has since been secured through the rest of Trump's term.
Author James Rodriguez: "Republicans are right to be nervous. With McConnell sidelined, a paper-thin margin, and Democrats willing to play hardball, the math for avoiding a shutdown looks worse by the week."
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