Republicans are unleashing a wave of spending in once-safe Senate strongholds, a dramatic shift that signals growing alarm about their chamber majority heading into the midterms.
The conservative nonprofit One Nation, backed by Senate Majority Leader John Thune, is plowing $28 million into Ohio television advertising and $11 million into Iowa, with spots beginning this week and running through summer. The spending reflects a stark reversal: both states voted decisively for President Trump just two years ago, yet GOP Senate candidates now face unexpectedly competitive races.
In Ohio, Republican Jon Husted is struggling against former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown, who has outraised him by more than double. Iowa's Ashley Hinson confronts voters angry over Trump's tariffs and agricultural sector weakness, facing state legislator Josh Turek, who is hammering the tariff issue.
During a June donor call, One Nation's Alex Latcham outlined roughly $100 million in spending targeting Democrat-held seats in New Hampshire, Georgia, and Michigan. But he also acknowledged the political headwinds in red territory and argued for reinforcing GOP holds in Ohio, Iowa, Alaska, Maine, and North Carolina.
Democrats need a net gain of just four Senate seats to seize control. Maine has become a crucial battleground, where incumbent Republican Susan Collins faces Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas if she seeks reelection, though reports have emerged about confusion over the actual matchup. The state swung Democratic in the last presidential race, making it a near-must-win for the left. If Democrats fail to flip Maine and lose Ohio and Iowa, their path to the majority narrows significantly.
One Nation is also reserving $6 million in New Hampshire, where Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen is retiring. Former Republican Senator John Sununu is expected to enter the race against Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas.
Thune's broader political operation is planning more than $400 million in total spending, with most flowing through the Senate Leadership Fund super PAC allied with One Nation.
One Nation did not respond to requests for additional comment beyond Latcham's prepared statement touting the group's focus on highlighting conservative policies. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee fired back, calling the Republican spending surge a sign of weakness. "This five-alarm fire by Republicans shows they know just how fragile their Senate majority is," said spokesperson Tommy Garcia.
Author James Rodriguez: "The GOP is burning cash to defend terrain they thought was locked down, which tells you everything about how much the map has shifted in Democrats' favor."
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