Oklahoma Republicans head to the polls today in primary elections for Senate and governor, offering the clearest gauge yet of whether Donald Trump's outsized influence over his party can hold steady through the 2024 cycle.
In the Senate race, Trump's early endorsement of U.S. Representative Kevin Hern appears to have cleared the field in a state that hasn't elected a Democrat to the upper chamber in over three decades. Hern is vying for the seat vacated by Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin, and Trump's backing has effectively deterred major challengers from mounting serious campaigns against him.
The real pressure test, however, comes in the gubernatorial contest, where Trump's grip on Republican primary voters will face a sterner challenge. The former president last month endorsed Mike Mazzei, a former state senator, in what has become a crowded field. Mazzei competes against Attorney General Gentner Drummond, former House Speaker Charles McCall, and Chip Keating, the state's former public safety director.
That crowded slate has made a runoff in August far more likely. Unless one candidate clears 50 percent of the vote today, Oklahoma Republicans will return to the polls weeks later to determine their nominee for governor.
Trump has built a track record of kingmaking success in Republican primaries this year, but Oklahoma's gubernatorial scramble suggests limits to his power when multiple heavyweight contenders refuse to step aside. The outcome could reshape assumptions about Trump's ability to control party dynamics heading into the general election.
Author James Rodriguez: "Trump's late entry into a race this crowded tells you everything about how much damage control his team thinks is necessary in a state that should be easy Republican territory."
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