Donald Trump's political sway will face scrutiny across multiple states on Tuesday as voters cast ballots in Republican primaries that will reshape competitive Senate and gubernatorial races heading into the general election. The day marks a crucial test of the former president's influence, particularly in Georgia, where his last-minute endorsement in the Senate runoff has set him at odds with Governor Brian Kemp over strategy and priorities.
In Georgia's Republican Senate runoff, Trump backed Rep. Mike Collins early Sunday morning, hoping to propel him past former football coach Derek Dooley. Collins took 40 percent in May's primary to Dooley's 30 percent, and the winner will face Democrat Jon Ossoff in a race that could determine control of the chamber. Collins immediately revamped his advertising to highlight Trump's endorsement, framing himself as a reliable conservative who authored the Laken Riley Act, immigration enforcement legislation that Trump signed as his first bill in his second term.
Kemp has backed Dooley instead, leveraging his personal connection to the Dooley family and appearing in campaign ads. The governor has positioned Dooley as a political outsider who can defeat Ossoff, a message that directly contradicts Trump's pick. Despite Collins outspending Dooley in the May primary, Dooley has invested more heavily on the airwaves in recent weeks. Kemp defended his position on Monday, telling reporters he made clear to Trump why a political newcomer would be the stronger general election candidate. Trump disagreed, and the governor said voters would settle the matter.
Collins has faced some complications in his campaign. He recently terminated longtime staffer Brandon Phillips following a disparaging post published from the campaign's X account. Phillips was previously scrutinized by the House Ethics Committee over allegations that Collins misused congressional funds by paying him for campaign work and by employing his girlfriend, who held no office position. Collins has dismissed the allegations as bogus.
Georgia's gubernatorial runoff presents another Trump test. Lt. Gov. Burt Jones, who earned Trump's backing and benefited from two presidential telerallies, faces billionaire businessman Rick Jackson. Jones strengthened ties with Trump after 2020 when he served on an alternate slate of presidential electors who cast votes for Trump even after the official count confirmed Biden's victory. Jackson has sought to out-compete Jones on Trump loyalty, spending more than $100 million of his own money to saturate airwaves with ads and branding himself as a wealthy outsider and change agent who could become Trump's favorite governor. Kemp endorsed Jones just days before the runoff, arguing that maintaining his administration's direction trumps bringing in a newcomer for the state's top office.
The uncertainty around turnout looms large in both races. Third and fourth-place finishers from May's primary included Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, who garnered 15 percent, and Attorney General Chris Carr, who received 12 percent. Whether those voters return to the polls and where they cast their support remains an open question, though Carr has publicly endorsed Jackson.
In Alabama, the Republican primary to replace Senator Tommy Tuberville in his bid for governor has gone to a runoff between Rep. Barry Moore and Navy SEAL Jared Hudson. Trump endorsed Moore, who finished first in May with 39 percent to Hudson's 26 percent. Moore has benefited from nearly $7 million in advertising, much of it backed by cryptocurrency-aligned groups and the conservative Club for Growth Action. Hudson, casting himself as a warrior ready to fight alongside Trump, has faced counterpunches from allied groups labeling him as a Democratic stalking horse.
Moore's military service has drawn scrutiny in recent weeks. A 2024 letter described him as a retired staff sergeant, though his campaign posted records showing he was honorably discharged with the rank of cadet at the same pay grade as that rank. A 2020 campaign ad claimed Moore had worn combat boots, a statement he has since clarified by noting National Guard members train in such gear. Moore stated on social media that he was never in combat and never claimed to be.
Oklahoma's primaries will test Trump's reach in another Republican stronghold. He backed former state Senator Mike Mazzei for governor, labeling him a MAGA warrior in a crowded field that includes Attorney General Gentner Drummond and former House Speaker Charles McCall. Separately, Trump endorsed former House Speaker T.W. Shannon for lieutenant governor, positioning himself against sitting Governor Kevin Stitt, who backed the state's chief operating officer, David Ostrowe. Trump's Senate pick in Oklahoma, Rep. Kevin Hern, appears positioned for an easy path to replace Markwayne Mullin, whom Trump has tapped to lead the Department of Homeland Security.
Washington, D.C.'s mayoral race has become a flashpoint for the Democratic Party's internal divide. With Mayor Muriel Bowser retiring, the contest features City Councilmember Janeese Lewis George, who has enlisted support from unions, progressives, and the Democratic Socialists of America, against former Councilmember Kenyan McDuffie, backed by established figures including former Attorney General Eric Holder and Senator Angela Alsobrooks of Maryland. Lewis George emphasizes affordability and economic justice, while McDuffie has questioned the feasibility of her proposals and criticized her past support for redirecting police funds to violence intervention. If no candidate achieves a majority in initial first-choice tallies, the race could trigger a lengthy ranked choice tabulation process.
California's 14th District special election will determine a replacement for former Democratic Representative Eric Swalwell, who resigned following allegations of sexual assault that he denies. Two Democrats, state Senator Aisha Wahab and Bay Area Rapid Transit Board member Melissa Hernandez, advanced from the recent primary and appear on Tuesday's special election ballot alongside other candidates. Unless a candidate wins an outright majority, the top two finishers will advance to an August 18 runoff.
Author Sarah Mitchell: "Trump's endorsements are moving markets and maneuvering candidates, but the Georgia runoffs show that his picks don't automatically clear the field when establishment Republicans have their own playbook to run."
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