Hillary Clinton has laid bare her theory of what cost Democrats the White House: Joe Biden's refusal to honor what she says was a prior promise to step aside.
Speaking at the 92nd Street Y in Manhattan on Monday, the former secretary of state and 2016 presidential nominee declared that Biden's decision to seek another term was a catastrophic miscalculation. "He made a terrible mistake for himself, his legacy, and for the country," Clinton said.
The crux of her argument centers on timing and process. Clinton insisted that had Biden announced in late summer 2023 that he would not run, a genuine Democratic primary would have emerged with multiple candidates competing. That contest, she contended, would have produced a nominee capable of beating Donald Trump.
"I believe whoever emerged from that contest, whether it was the vice president or a governor or a senator or anybody else, would have beaten Donald Trump," Clinton said, describing his decision to remain in the race as a "terrible miscalculation."
Biden did exit the race in July 2024, but only after his debate debacle against Trump. His wife Jill Biden has since revealed that she believed he was experiencing a stroke during that performance. The president then cleared the path for Vice President Kamala Harris to claim the nomination in August, setting up the general election matchup that Harris ultimately lost to Trump.
Clinton's assertion that any Democrat in a contested primary would have prevailed over Trump carries significant weight in party circles, though it remains untested. A 2025 analysis from the left-leaning Way to Win identified deeper structural problems plaguing the party: voters demanded economic change, Republicans commanded superior media advantages, and fractures over Gaza, racial justice, and immigration left the party fractured. An internal Democratic review painted a bleaker picture still, documenting losses at every level of government spanning nearly two decades.
Clinton characterized the situation Biden created as one in which the party found itself "in a terrible dilemma" once he refused to acknowledge his earlier commitment and delayed his departure as long as possible.
Author James Rodriguez: "Clinton's theory offers comfort to a party searching for someone to blame, but the evidence suggests Democrats' problems run deeper than one man's stubborn pride."
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