Three high-stakes Republican primary runoffs will test the political muscle of President Donald Trump's endorsements as voters head to the polls in Alabama and Georgia on Tuesday night.
In Georgia's Senate race, Trump backed Rep. Mike Collins just over the weekend, throwing his weight behind the candidate who claimed 41 percent in the May 19 primary. Collins faces former football coach Derek Dooley, who finished second with 30 percent. The Republican front-runner built a decisive geographic advantage that should prove difficult for Dooley to overcome.
Collins won a majority of Georgia's 159 counties in the initial primary and placed second in every other county. Most significantly, he made inroads in the Savannah-based 1st Congressional District, where Rep. Buddy Carter, the local favorite, won decisively. Collins grabbed second place in Carter's home turf while Dooley managed only single digits. With Carter now eliminated, his voters represent a crucial prize for Collins in the runoff.
Dooley's primary support was far more concentrated, heavily concentrated in the Atlanta metro area where professional-class voters have previously resisted Trump's favored candidates. He claimed only 13 counties but they were large enough to account for roughly a quarter of all votes cast statewide. An upset would require Dooley to rack up overwhelming margins around Atlanta and hope for lighter turnout in rural Georgia.
The gubernatorial runoff looks much tighter. Trump endorsed Lt. Gov. Burt Jones, who led the May primary with 38 percent, against self-funded businessman Rick Jackson's 33 percent. A critical development came when Gov. Brian Kemp threw his backing to Jones over the weekend. The move carries weight because Kemp's strongest supporters within Republican circles come from the Atlanta metro area, where voters have shown some skepticism toward Trump. Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger had performed best in that region before Trump forced him out with attacks over his handling of the 2020 election certification.
Kemp's endorsement could make Jones more appealing to Trump-skeptical metro voters, but the race remains volatile. Donald Trump Jr. posted on social media yesterday praising Jackson and insisting that "no matter who wins tomorrow, it's a victory for MAGA," signaling just how fluid the contest appears to be.
Across the border in Alabama, Trump is backing Rep. Barry Moore in the Senate runoff against former Navy SEAL Jared Hudson. Moore dominated the May primary with 39 percent to Hudson's 26 percent, but polling since then suggests a competitive race despite Trump's backing. The president has maintained his support without attacking Hudson, who has marketed himself as Trump-aligned.
Geography shaped the initial Alabama primary sharply. Moore swept southern Alabama, where his congressional district sits, while Hudson performed strongly in and around Birmingham. That leaves northern Alabama as the night's critical battleground. Madison County, home to Huntsville, deserves close watching, particularly given the city's recent emergence as Alabama's largest metropolitan area, surpassing Birmingham.
Voters in Oklahoma and Washington, D.C., will also hold primaries tonight. California's 14th District is choosing a replacement for former Rep. Eric Swalwell.
Author Sarah Mitchell: "Trump's endorsements matter, but they're far from destiny in Republican primaries, and tonight will show whether he can move his picks across the finish line without doing the heavy lifting himself."
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