Only one in ten Europeans now regard the United States as an ally, according to a sweeping survey that captures a dramatic erosion of transatlantic confidence in recent months. The polling, conducted across 15 countries, found majorities in every single nation doubt Washington would defend them if attacked.
The European Council on Foreign Relations released the findings ahead of major G7 and NATO summits, documenting what researchers called "deep European distrust" in US security commitments. The results mark a sharp decline from previous months: support for the US as an ally dropped from 16% six months earlier and 22% in November 2024, now settling at just 11% on average.
The shift reflects mounting European anxiety over President Trump's posture on NATO, his threats regarding Greenland, potential troop withdrawals from European bases, and aggressive Middle East policies. Rather than remain passive, European publics are now signaling they want their governments to build independent defense capacity.
"Across the continent, there's clear support for reducing dependence on Washington," said Jana Kobzová, a senior policy fellow at the think tank. "Europeans are increasingly open to higher defence spending and show a striking degree of confidence that neighbouring countries would come to their aid in a crisis."
The pivot toward self-reliance appears genuine and substantial. Majorities in nearly every country surveyed said their nation should reduce strategic dependence on US military hardware. Denmark led with 75% backing "buy European" alternatives, followed by the Netherlands at 72% and Sweden at 70%. Support exceeded 60% in France, Switzerland, the UK, and Spain as well.
Defense spending attitudes also shifted markedly. Europeans now favor higher national defense budgets at rates 4 percentage points higher than a year ago, with Italy as the sole outlier where clear majorities oppose increased military spending. Roughly 47% backed collective EU borrowing to finance expanded defense capacity, strongest in Portugal (59%), Denmark (56%), the Netherlands (55%), and Spain.
The broader American relationship, however, remains complex in European minds. Only 13% classified the US as a rival, while 12% labeled it a direct adversary. The largest block, a plurality, still views Washington as a "necessary partner" rather than enemy. And in most countries polled, majorities expect relations to improve once Trump leaves office, with support for this view exceeding 60% in France, Spain, Denmark, the Netherlands, and Sweden.
One notable constraint on European military expansion emerged in the data: reluctance to cut domestic public spending to fund defense increases. Opposition to such tradeoffs ran deepest in Italy (63%), Austria (59%), Germany (56%), Spain (54%), and Denmark (52%), suggesting Europeans want defense spending to come from new revenues or reallocation rather than cuts to social programs.
On broader strategic questions, Europeans remain divided. Only 29% supported replacing NATO with an EU-only defense alliance. And Ukraine's EU membership bid continues to fracture European consensus, with opposition stronger than support in Hungary, Bulgaria, Austria, Germany, and even Estonia, typically one of Kyiv's firmest backers.
Coauthor Paweł Zerka noted that public demand for self-reliance has "created a window for Europe's leaders to go further and faster" on security independence, even as uncertainty about the American partnership persists.
Author James Rodriguez: "This survey captures a genuine turning point: Europeans are no longer waiting for Washington to reassure them. They're building their own security architecture whether Trump stays or goes."
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