Xavier Becerra has secured a spot in California's November gubernatorial runoff after pulling off one of the state's most improbable political turnarounds in recent years, vaulting from a distant third-place contender just months ago into the race's final showdown.
The former California attorney general and U.S. health secretary will face either Democrat Tom Steyer or Republican Steve Hilton, depending on how the remaining mail-in ballots shake out. Election officials are still counting, though the trend increasingly favors Becerra's path to a general election matchup.
"The people of the great state of California, in the greatest nation on earth, have spoken, loudly and proudly," Becerra declared in a statement after the Associated Press confirmed his advancement. "We will not be bought. We will not be bullied. And we are never backing down. November, here we come."
The math behind Becerra's resurrection is straightforward: he trailed badly in early polling and faced quiet pressure from Democratic insiders to exit the race. At one point, he was stuck at just 3 percent support. Yet as the primary entered its final stretch, he began steadily pulling Democratic votes, eventually consolidating enough support to edge into second place as counting continued.
"The underdog stayed in the fight," a visibly energized Becerra told supporters Tuesday night, watching early returns point toward his unlikely advancement. If he wins the general election, he would become California's first Latino governor since 1875.
Hilton, a former UK political operative who transitioned into Fox News commentary and earned Donald Trump's endorsement, held an early lead as election night results initially arrived. But California's unusual mail-in voting patterns complicated the picture. Many Democrats appear to have waited until the final days to cast ballots, carefully weighing their options in a primary that had once looked like it could pit two Republicans against each other.
Those late-arriving ballots, still being processed Friday evening, have shifted the race's trajectory. Hilton stopped short of declaring victory this week, saying only that "change is coming, and the campaign for change starts today."
Trump, however, showed no such restraint. Without evidence, the former president declared Hilton the winner and accused California of election rigging. "We don't want cheating in our elections. You see it in California," Trump said Thursday from the Oval Office, claiming mail-in ballots had mysteriously appeared. By Friday, the U.S. Justice Department had dispatched a federal prosecutor to observe ballot processing in Los Angeles, while a Trump-appointed assistant U.S. attorney announced his office was conducting multiple election fraud investigations.
California's top-two primary system creates its own peculiar dynamics. Unlike states where a primary determines which party advances, here the highest two vote-getters move to the general election regardless of party affiliation. That quirk meant a Republican could theoretically have faced another Republican in November.
Now, if Becerra holds his position, he likely faces Steyer, the billionaire environmental activist who poured over $200 million of his own wealth into saturation advertising. Steyer campaigned aggressively on progressive priorities like universal healthcare and higher taxes on the wealthy, and spent the final campaign weeks battling Becerra directly over experience, qualifications, and vision.
A Becerra-Steyer general election would guarantee a Democrat wins the governor's mansion in a state where Republicans hold virtually no statewide offices and voters register Democratic by nearly two-to-one margins. It would also produce an extended, expensive fight between two competing Democratic visions.
Hilton's path, by contrast, looks dramatically steeper. Running as a Trump-backed Republican in a state where Trump is profoundly unpopular represents a substantial headwind from the start.
The California governor's race evolved into one of the state's most chaotic primary contests partly because no obvious successor to term-limited Governor Gavin Newsom emerged. High-profile Democrats, including Vice President Kamala Harris and Senator Alex Padilla, decided to sit out the race entirely. That left a sprawling Democratic field without a clear frontrunner.
Congressman Eric Swalwell briefly gained momentum before his campaign collapsed after allegations of sexual assault and misconduct surfaced, which he denies. Swalwell withdrew from the governor's race and resigned from Congress.
From that chaos, Becerra gradually gained traction. He overcame stumbles, including a viral moment when he tried to redirect a television reporter's line of questioning and awkwardly asked, "This is not a 'gotcha' piece, right?" He also weathered criticism from former Biden administration officials who questioned his management style and scrutiny over his position on single-payer healthcare.
Yet none of it derailed his late-stage consolidation of Democratic support, turning the underdog candidate into the primary's biggest winner.
Author James Rodriguez: "Becerra's path from 3 percent to the general election vindicates the patience play in California politics, and it completely scrambles November's calculations."
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