Rob Sand appears on podcasts to discuss his passion for hunting. He starts rallies with the audience singing America the Beautiful. He criticizes the two-party political system as fundamentally broken. Now Iowa Democrats are betting this particular Democrat can deliver a breakthrough in the November midterms.
Sand, the state's auditor and the last Democrat holding statewide office in Iowa, is running for governor in a state that has swung decisively Republican over the past decade. Democrats see his candidacy as the centerpiece of a broader offensive aimed at reclaiming House seats and making the Senate race competitive. The party has little to lose and much to gain after years of decline.
Republicans have controlled the governorship since 2011, both Senate seats since 2015, and all House seats since 2023. Yet national conditions have shifted sharply. Donald Trump's approval ratings have deteriorated, gas prices have climbed, and historical patterns favor the party out of power in midterm elections. Democrats believe Iowa is winnable for the first time in years.
Sand has avoided traditional Democratic messaging while hammering Republicans for steering Iowa into decline. The state's economy is struggling and cancer rates are surging, he argues. In his view, both parties are corrupted by money and partisanship.
"Our democracy is run by two private clubs who have a lot of people in them who are happier to have you hate your uncle if they can ring another $10 donation out of you," Sand told a national news program. "They're more focused on that than solving the problems that we face."
Running unopposed for the Democratic nomination, Sand faces a crowded Republican primary. Congressman Randy Feenstra and farmer-businessman Zach Lahn are the top fundraisers. The Cook Political Report recently shifted Iowa's gubernatorial race from leans Republican to a toss-up, a move that infuriated Iowa's Republican Party chair Jeff Kaufmann as "lazy" and "naive."
The rating change reflects Sand's strength as a candidate and his potential to boost other Democrats down the ballot. National Republicans are treating the state seriously. The Senate Leadership Fund, the main super PAC for Republican senators, announced $29 million in spending for Iowa, a massive investment just two years after Trump won the state by 13 points.
House Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks acknowledged Iowa is now purple, not ruby red. She narrowly survived her 2024 reelection against Democrat Christina Bohannan, winning by about 800 votes despite a six-vote victory margin in 2020. She is considered the most vulnerable member of Iowa's House delegation.
Bohannan is running again in the primary against Travis Terrell, who has raised only about $21,000 compared to her $5.6 million. She argues that her name recognition, combined with Trump's unpopularity, gives her a real shot. She notes that thousands of Trump voters supported her in 2024 because she met them on their own turf.
The Democratic Senate primary is more contentious. State Representative Josh Turek, who uses a wheelchair after his father's exposure to Agent Orange in Vietnam, is clashing with state Senator Zach Wahls over electability and party independence. Wahls became a social media sensation in 2011 after discussing being raised by two mothers during a speech to the Iowa legislature.
Wahls has attacked Turek for accepting backing from Chuck Schumer and national Democrats, arguing that distancing himself from the party is essential to winning in a right-leaning state. VoteVets, a military veteran super PAC with ties to Senate Democrats, has spent $5 million supporting Turek.
Turek counters that electability is what matters and that his background as a representative of a right-leaning western Iowa district proves his appeal to independents and moderate Republicans. He has endorsements from former Senator Tom Harkin, former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, and four sitting U.S. senators. Wahls has backing from Senator Elizabeth Warren and former Congressman Dave Loebsack.
The Democratic nominee will face Republican Congresswoman Ashley Hinson in November. She is running unopposed in her primary and has Trump's endorsement.
Josh Turek, who is challenging for the Senate nomination, framed the moment bluntly: "I think this is a once-in-a-generation opportunity for us to be able to win here in Iowa. I mean, this is a state that has completely hit the bottom."
Author James Rodriguez: "Sand's candidacy is the test case for whether a Democrat can actually win in Trump country by refusing to play the traditional party game. If Iowa goes blue this November, it won't be because Democrats learned to love the establishment, it will be because they found a way to sound like they're running against it."
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