The Trump administration's latest attempt to halt fighting in Lebanon has collapsed, even as Israel expands its ground operations and seeks American approval for large-scale strikes on Hezbollah positions in Beirut.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio spent the last two days calling Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, pitching a new ceasefire framework. The proposal was straightforward: Hezbollah would stop firing missiles and drones at Israel, while Israel would hold back from escalating attacks on the Lebanese capital.
Aoun signaled openness. He asked parliament speaker Nabih Berri, who leads a major Shia party with ties to Hezbollah, to pressure the militant group into halting its attacks. Berri's response was, according to a U.S. official, "evasive and disappointing." Instead of committing to a pause, he suggested Israel should fire first, effectively blocking the initiative before it gained traction.
The collapse underscores a troubling pattern. Trump and Rubio have announced multiple ceasefires over the past two months that have existed largely on paper. Both Israel and Hezbollah have repeatedly violated them, leaving U.S. diplomatic efforts in tatters.
Israeli officials say their country has formally requested permission from Washington to conduct major bombing campaigns in Beirut. A U.S. official hinted the administration's longstanding opposition to such strikes could shift, stating: "The U.S. does not expect Israel to absorb ongoing attacks on its civilians by a terrorist organization."
The fighting shows no signs of cooling. Israel has widened its ground invasion of southern Lebanon into what amounts to an occupation. Hezbollah has responded by increasing the range of its missile and drone attacks on Israeli territory. Analysts say the conflict appears likely to spiral further out of control.
Diplomatic channels remain open but strained. Israeli and Lebanese military officers met at the Pentagon on Friday to discuss a potential ceasefire, Israeli withdrawal, Hezbollah disarmament, and deployment of Lebanese armed forces in the south. Israeli and Lebanese diplomats are scheduled for another round of talks at the State Department this week. Neither session has produced breakthroughs.
The Trump administration's push for a ceasefire is partly rooted in broader U.S. strategy. Washington is negotiating a memorandum of understanding with Iran that would include an end to the Lebanon fighting. That leverage, however, appears to be evaporating as both sides dig in.
A senior Lebanese official painted a bleak picture, saying neither Hezbollah nor Israel genuinely wants a ceasefire and that the Trump administration has not applied real pressure on Netanyahu to step back. The official also suggested Iran's Revolutionary Guards are urging Hezbollah to escalate the conflict to gain bargaining power in U.S.-Iran negotiations, further complicating American diplomatic efforts.
Author James Rodriguez: "When a ceasefire proposal collapses within 48 hours and the stronger party signals it's shopping for permission to strike the capital, you're watching a conflict that's about to get much worse."
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