Donald Trump canceled family plans over Memorial Day weekend and abruptly moved a cabinet meeting from Camp David back to the White House, fueling speculation he was preparing to announce a major diplomatic breakthrough with Iran. He never did. Weeks into negotiations to end a conflict he initiated, the self-described master dealmaker finds himself in a surprisingly weak position against Tehran, struggling to close an agreement that would allow him to declare victory before the midterms and economic damage spiral further.
The irony is sharp. Trump wrote the bestselling 1987 book "The Art of the Deal" and built a reputation on tough negotiating tactics. Yet his own stated principles have turned against him. "The worst thing you can possibly do in a deal is seem desperate to make it," Trump wrote. "The best thing you can do is deal from strength, and leverage is the biggest strength you can have." He now lacks both.
On February 28, Trump launched a joint US-Israeli military campaign aimed at toppling Iran's regime. Early strikes killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other senior officials. Initial optimism faded quickly. Unlike Venezuela, where a recent special forces raid had extracted President Nicolás Maduro, Iran fought back hard and strategically. Tehran fired missiles and drones at US bases across the Middle East, attacked energy infrastructure in the Gulf, and deployed its most potent economic weapon: closing the Strait of Hormuz, the critical passage through which more than one-fifth of the world's daily oil supply flows.
That blockade, combined with Iranian strikes on pipelines and gas fields in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates, sent global oil markets into turmoil. Inside the US, average gas prices jumped 50 percent to nearly $4.50 per gallon. The economic pain mounted internationally, raising recession fears and threatening Republican prospects in November's midterm elections.
Six weeks of intensive bombing by the world's most advanced military could not force Iran into submission. A ceasefire took hold on April 8, but substantive talks stalled as Trump wavered between pursuing a deal and threatening to resume military operations.
The draft agreement circulating among US allies addresses a problem that didn't exist before Trump's war began: reopening the Strait of Hormuz to restore normal oil flows. Washington would lift its blockade of Iranian ports and grant Tehran access to roughly $12 billion in frozen assets. The structure mirrors Trump's previous negotiating approach. After brokering a 2023 ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, his team left critical issues like Hamas disarmament and Israeli military withdrawal for undefined future talks that never materialized. Now, major questions about Iran's nuclear program, ballistic missile development, and support for regional militias including Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis remain completely unresolved.
Intelligence assessments underscore how the war has actually strengthened Iran's position. A CIA report sent to Trump this month concluded that Tehran retained about 70 percent of its prewar missile stockpile and 75 percent of its mobile launchers. Analysts found Iran more resilient than previously assumed and capable of weathering a naval blockade for months. The regime that Trump intended to weaken emerged from the conflict with an expanded toolkit for economic coercion.
Trump claims he will secure a superior agreement to Obama's 2015 nuclear deal, under which Iran accepted enrichment limits in exchange for sanctions relief. Yet he withdrew from that pact unilaterally in 2018, a decision that set the current crisis in motion. Iran subsequently ramped up uranium enrichment to near-weapons grade, though international monitors confirmed it stopped short of weaponization.
At this week's cabinet meeting, Trump insisted he felt no pressure from election timing and demanded perfection in any final agreement. "I didn't do this to get a crummy agreement," he told reporters. But the math is unforgiving. By launching a failed regime-change war, Trump handed Iran a new instrument of global leverage and hobbled his own negotiating position precisely when he most needs a political win.
Author James Rodriguez: "Trump built his brand on leverage, and Iran just out-leveraged him spectacularly."
Comments