California Democrats are heading into Tuesday's primary election without a clear frontrunner, alarming party officials who fear the fractured field could allow unexpected candidates to advance. Voters face tight races for governor, Los Angeles mayor and a series of congressional seats that could reshape control of the House nationally, yet surveys show widespread frustration and indecision across the state.
The gubernatorial race has tightened into a three-way contest between Xavier Becerra, the former health and human services secretary leading at 23 percent, Republican Steve Hilton at 20 percent, and billionaire Tom Steyer at 15 percent. Democratic congresswoman Katie Porter and Republican Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco have also reached double digits. Becerra's unexpected surge came after congressman Eric Swalwell's campaign collapsed following sexual assault and harassment allegations he denies.
The stakes extend beyond California. In a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans roughly two to one, the lack of clarity is striking. No Republican has won statewide office since Arnold Schwarzenegger's 2006 re-election, and Trump lost the state by more than 20 percentage points in 2024. Yet voters are registering deep unhappiness. Three-quarters of Californians believe the nation is heading in the wrong direction, the highest share since 2003, according to the Public Policy Institute of California.
Democrats are caught between two fires. While they wrestle with a crippling cost-of-living crisis at home, national concerns about the Trump administration dominate voter thinking. Only about 30 percent of likely voters approve of Trump's job performance in California. "About half of Californians feel that the state is going in the wrong direction," said Mark Baldassare, PPIC's survey director. "But their dissatisfaction with the state of affairs in California is overshadowed by a greater unhappiness about the state of the nation right now."
Becerra is casting himself as the experienced operator who can solve California's intractable problems. Steyer argues only he has bold enough solutions to deliver structural change. Hilton blames 16 years of Democratic governance for the state's decline and wants to shake up the political establishment. Yet experts doubt his path to the general election. "I don't see a future in which Steve Hilton becomes the governor of the state," said Pomona College political science professor Sara Sadhwani, noting Trump's strong disapproval in California.
The confusion extends to Los Angeles, where Mayor Karen Bass faces pressure over homelessness, housing costs, and her handling of last year's devastating fires. Progressive councilmember Nithya Raman and reality TV star Spencer Pratt, who lost his home to the Palisades fire, are challenging her. Pratt's social media-driven campaign has drawn outsized attention, embodying what Sadhwani calls the political landscape's shift toward anti-establishment outsiders who understand modern media.
California's congressional battles may carry the biggest national consequences. Democrats need only a handful of House seats to reclaim control during Trump's second term. Last year, voters overwhelmingly approved Proposition 50, allowing California to redraw its congressional lines. The redrawn districts created as many as five new Democratic opportunities while scrambling calculations for Republican incumbents like congressman Kevin Kiley, who left the party and registered as independent to face tough re-election.
In the Central Valley, Republican congressman David Valadao is defending a seat now tilted toward Democrats. The Democratic candidates span the party's ideological range: Bernie Sanders backed political newcomer Randy Villegas against moderate state assembly member Jasmeet Bains, who has Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee support. The race ranks among Democrats' top pickup opportunities.
Orange County is hosting a bruising Republican-versus-Republican contest after redistricting forced longtime congressman Ken Calvert and congresswoman Young Kim into the same reconfigured 40th district. In San Francisco, the race to succeed retired House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has become an ideological battleground, with Pelosi backing supervisor Connie Chan against Democratic state senator Scott Wiener and tech executive Saikat Chakrabarti, a former chief of staff to Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
The congressional opportunity has become more crucial for Democrats following a Supreme Court decision undermining the Voting Rights Act. The ruling has triggered a cascade of Republican-led redistricting across Southern states, unraveling majority-Black districts and shrinking Democratic opportunities elsewhere.
Political observers say the primary results will signal how much the party's identity has shifted. "If it's a Xavier Becerra and a Karen Bass, it says a lot about the establishment and maybe our politics haven't shifted as much as we thought," Sadhwani said. "If it's a Tom Steyer and a Nithya Raman, maybe we're making a real leftward turn here, and people are just fed up with the establishment." The chaos voters see in these races reflects something deeper. "There's chaos in the Democratic party and a lack of direction, and we see that reflected in these candidates in many ways," she added.
Author James Rodriguez: "California's Democratic sprawl is either a sign of healthy competition or a party that has lost its way, and Tuesday's results will tell us which."
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