Ken Paxton crushed Senator John Cornyn in Tuesday's runoff, delivering a stunning rebuke to one of the Republican Party's most senior figures and cementing Donald Trump's grip over GOP primary voters. The victory made Paxton the second incumbent Republican senator to fall to a Trump-backed challenger in less than two weeks, a remarkable display of the former president's sway over a fractured party base.
The magnitude of Cornyn's collapse shocked even seasoned political observers. The one-time Senate Republican whip, who had spent tens of millions of dollars in advertising, trailed in nearly all 254 Texas counties. With roughly three-quarters of votes counted, Paxton led by more than 25 percentage points. The primary itself had become the most expensive in American history, yet pro-Cornyn forces were outspent on ads by roughly $80 million.
Trump's endorsement of Paxton proved decisive, despite the attorney general's baggage. Paxton has faced impeachment, indictment, and public accusations of marital infidelity. But none of that mattered to Texas Republican primary voters, who appeared far more interested in Trump's blessing than establishment assurances about electability. Cornyn's allies had hired a top Trump adviser and the president's own pollster in a desperate bid to secure Trump's backing. In the end, Trump sided with his longtime loyalist.
The fallout now threatens to reshape Senate Republican dynamics on Capitol Hill. Cornyn was popular among many colleagues and had served in leadership for years. His ouster by Trump's hand comes after the president forced out Senator Bill Cassidy of Louisiana. The message to other Senate Republicans is unmistakable: cross the president at your peril, even if you have decades of seniority and party standing.
With only 53 Republicans controlling the chamber, just a handful of defections can tank legislation. Already, some senators appear less willing to fall in line. Retiring Senator Thom Tillis of North Carolina ridiculed Paxton's troubled history on CNN over the weekend, comparing his ethics to a serial killer's eating disorder. "This guy is an empty suit," Tillis said bluntly. Such public dissent would have been unthinkable weeks earlier.
The general election now looms as a genuine battleground. Democratic nominee James Talarico, a 37-year-old state legislator and seminarian, has already raised $27 million in the first quarter, nearly seven times what any Republican Senate candidate pulled in. National Democratic donors have poured resources into his campaign, sensing an opening to flip a seat Republicans have held easily for a generation.
Paxton's weakness as a fundraiser means the National Republican Senatorial Committee could be forced to divert as much as $100 million to save the seat. Notably, the main Senate Republican super PAC has not reserved any fall advertising in Texas. Republican leaders are openly hoping that Trump and his $350 million super PAC decide to step in with cash.
Tuesday's Texas primary produced other seismic shifts. Representative Al Green, 78, became the first sitting Democratic House member to lose to a younger primary challenger, falling to Representative Christian Menefee, 38. The race marked an early test of Democratic voters' appetite for generational change, a question that has lingered since President Joe Biden was pushed aside from his reelection bid two years ago.
Former Representative Colin Allred reclaimed a Dallas House seat by defeating the woman who replaced him in Congress. Allred had abandoned a Senate primary race in December when it became clear he couldn't consolidate Black voters against Talarico. His pivot back to the House, where he once served three terms, now positions him as the likely general-election favorite in a heavily Democratic district after Texas Republicans gerrymandered the map to eliminate Democratic seats at Trump's request.
The crypto industry's powerful super PAC, Fairshake, made a show of force by pouring $6.5 million into the race against Green, who had campaigned fiercely against the sector. The investment paid off with Menefee's victory. In an unusual move, one ad even featured sitting Representative Jasmine Crockett arguing for new leadership.
The Democratic primary for Senate had been acrimonious as well, splitting voters along racial lines. But Talarico has had three months to repair those relationships ahead of the general. Republicans are wasting no time painting him as a "woke weirdo" unfit for Texas. In his victory speech, Paxton vowed that Texas would not become "the radical left's No. 1 priority."
Cornyn's final hours were bitter. Even on election day, he lashed out at Paxton on CNN, calling him an "embarrassment" and dragging up his wife's infidelity accusations. "You can't trust Ken Paxton," Cornyn said, producing exactly the kind of damaging soundbite Democrats will happily use in the fall.
Author Sarah Mitchell: "Trump just turned a reliable Republican seat into a genuine swing-state showdown, and Senate Republicans have learned an expensive lesson about defying him."
Comments