One in four Hispanic voters who backed Trump in 2024 now say they probably or certainly would not support him again, according to a new UnidosUS poll. The shift signals potential trouble for Republicans in Latino-heavy districts heading into the 2026 midterms.
The data reveals a striking reversal from Trump's 2024 performance with Latino voters, which had been celebrated as a historic GOP breakthrough. Two-thirds of Hispanic voters now disapprove of his job performance, with approval stuck at just 30 percent. That disapproval spans every region tested, hitting 51 percent even in Florida, traditionally Republican stronghold.
The contrast is stark when measured against Democratic voters. Only 5 percent of those who voted for Harris say they would not support her again, compared with 25 percent of Trump's 2024 Latino backers expressing buyer's remorse.
On the generic House ballot for 2026, Latino voters favor Democratic candidates 54 percent to 27 percent, with 19 percent still undecided. This represents a dramatic reversal in districts where Republicans had counted on holding recent gains.
The GOP had hoped Trump's Latino surge represented a genuine realignment. Democrats, watching the numbers closely, see an opening created by inflation concerns, the prospect of tariffs, and the enforcement of stricter immigration policies.
In critical battleground states, the damage to Republicans is unmistakable. Texas, where Trump made significant gains last year, now shows 67 percent disapproval among Latino voters, with Democrats holding a commanding 54 percent to 28 percent House ballot advantage. California's Latino disapproval reaches 71 percent, powering a 59 percent to 22 percent Democratic lead. Arizona shows Trump at 67 percent disapproval, with Democrats leading 53 percent to 25 percent.
Beyond Trump himself, deeper anxieties are shaping Latino voter sentiment. Eighty-four percent say Congress is failing its constitutional duties by allowing too much executive power. Nearly six in ten believe their civil rights have become less secure under the Trump administration. Seventy-nine percent say the president should need congressional approval before military action, and 64 percent explicitly oppose a potential war with Iran.
Cost of living tops the list of issues driving Latino views of Trump, not immigration as some might assume. Still, immigration enforcement ranks second in voter concerns, ahead of jobs, tariffs, and cuts to health and food assistance programs.
Florida remains the notable exception. Latino voters there actually back the Republican House candidate 42 percent to 38 percent, and Republican candidates also lead in Senate and governor matchups. This suggests the Latino vote is far from uniformly anti-Trump, even as it fragments elsewhere.
The UnidosUS poll surveyed 3,000 Latino registered voters nationwide from late April through mid-May 2026, with a margin of error of 1.8 percentage points. Interviews were conducted in English or Spanish via phone, text, and online panels.
The bottom line is simple: Trump's Latino gains look like political quicksand rather than foundation. Democrats have a genuine path back into competitive Latino neighborhoods, though victory is far from assured.
Author James Rodriguez: "This is exactly the kind of volatility Democrats needed to see, but they'll squander it if they don't have a compelling economic message ready to go."
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