Ken Paxton and John Cornyn face off Tuesday in Texas's Republican Senate runoff, a clash that has become the year's ugliest primary battle and a fresh test of Donald Trump's power to reshape the GOP in his image.
The state attorney general challenged the four-term incumbent after both advanced from the March primary. Cornyn narrowly won that first round, but the race tightened dramatically after Trump endorsed Paxton last week, calling him "a true Maga warrior." The endorsement triggered an immediate advertising blitz by Paxton's campaign and his allied super PAC, which aired promotional spots within 24 hours of Trump's announcement.
Cornyn's campaign and support groups have spent roughly $90 million on advertising since last year, the bulk of it attacking Paxton. Despite that financial advantage, the Trump endorsement shifted momentum. Cornyn acknowledged the impact but struck a defiant tone, saying he knew who truly decides Senate races: Texans.
The Republican winner will face Democrat James Talarico in November's general election.
On the surface, this is a clash of style and loyalty over policy. Cornyn, a former state attorney general and state supreme court justice, represents what remains of establishment Republicanism in Texas. Paxton is a far-right firebrand who has faced impeachment and criminal indictment but whose aggressive stances on immigration and cultural issues energize the party base.
Both men would likely vote the same way on most legislation. What really divides them is their relationship to Trump and their willingness to embrace his brand of politics. Paxton embraced it fully. Cornyn, by contrast, has shown independence on key votes, a trait Trump views as disloyalty.
Jim Tubbesing, 77, walking through Paxton's hometown of McKinney on a tree-lined street dotted with antique shops and historic architecture, captured the mood among Trump supporters. "Paxton is more conservative," he said. "He has been good for Texas. I vote for the policy, not the fact that he's alleged to have done something." Tubbesing dismissed Cornyn as a "Rino: Republican in name only."
This race arrives as Trump has accelerated his purge of Republicans he deems insufficiently loyal. Earlier this month, he successfully backed primary challengers in Louisiana, Kentucky, and Indiana who unseated incumbent Republicans. The pattern reveals how completely Trump has remade the party's grassroots, even as establishment figures like Cornyn cling to power.
Cornyn could become the first Republican senator in Texas history to seek renomination and lose, a symbolic defeat that would reverberate well beyond the state.
Tuesday's ballot will also settle Democratic House nominees in Dallas and Houston districts that overwhelmingly favor Democrats, as well as a competitive San Antonio-area seat the party hopes to flip.
Author James Rodriguez: "Trump's endorsement proves that in GOP primaries, the party's grassroots follow Trump first and establishment credentials second."
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