Ken Paxton, Texas's scandal-ridden attorney general, faces four-term incumbent John Cornyn in a runoff that could reshape Republican politics and determine control of the U.S. Senate. The winner advances to face Democrat James Talarico in November.
Paxton secured Donald Trump's endorsement last week, with the president calling him "a true Maga warrior." That backing marked the culmination of months of rivalry between the two candidates for the most coveted prize in Republican politics. Cornyn had lobbied hard for Trump's support, even introducing a bill to name an interstate highway after him. It did not work.
The runoff is not about policy. Both men would vote nearly identically on legislation. Instead, the race hinges on competing visions of what the modern Republican Party should be: Cornyn represents the old establishment wing, pragmatic and willing to compromise across party lines, while Paxton embodies the grievance-fueled insurgency that Trump brought to national prominence.
Cornyn, a former Texas attorney general and state supreme court justice, traces his political lineage to the Bush family era of Texas Republicanism. He helped negotiate the 2023 bipartisan gun safety bill after the Uvalde school shooting, a vote that made him a target in the MAGA movement's crosshairs.
Paxton, by contrast, was pioneering anti-establishment politics long before Trump descended the Trump Tower escalator in 2015. As a state legislator in the early 2010s, he pushed ideological agendas and ignored threats to his personal reputation. First elected attorney general in 2014, he positioned himself as a national figure on the far right, launching early investigations into abortion bans and launching a lawsuit to overturn Trump's 2020 election loss.
But Paxton carries enormous baggage. He was impeached in 2023 on corruption charges and acquitted in a trial where his wife, a state senator, could not vote. He faced indictment on felony securities fraud charges that were dismissed after a 2024 diversion agreement. Last year, his wife of 38 years filed for divorce citing adultery, court records show.
Paxton's legal troubles have not stopped him in McKinney, his home town, where residents cite his conservative positions on guns and immigration. Some dismiss the scandals entirely. "I vote for the policy, not the fact that he's alleged to have done something," said Jim Tubbesing, 77, a local voter.
But not all Republicans are turning a blind eye. Nathaniel Moran, a congressman representing Texas's first district, broke his tradition of staying out of primaries to back Cornyn. "Why would we elect a man to the United States Senate who has proven himself to be corrupt and not been contrite about the corruption?" Moran said.
Political scientists warn that Paxton's vulnerabilities could imperil what should be a safe Republican seat. James Talarico, the Democratic nominee, is a state legislator and former middle school teacher who speaks the language of faith in ways Democrats have ceded to Republicans. He could be the first Democrat to win statewide office in Texas in more than 30 years.
Mark Jones, a political scientist at Rice University, observed that Paxton's flaws are a consultant's dream for opponents: his status as a self-described adulterer, a sevenfold increase in income since taking office, retaliation against whistleblowers, support for January 6, and felony indictments. "If you step back as a neutral observer and think about November 2026, it's pretty clear that Paxton is the weaker candidate," Jones said.
A Maga victory would extend Trump's winning streak of primary endorsements and prove his enduring grip on the party. But it could also hand Texas Democrats their best opportunity in a generation as voters struggle with affordability, particularly among Latino communities that backed Trump in 2024.
The race has devolved into a culture-war slugfest. Paxton has weaponized his office against a proposed mixed-use development called Epic City, filing lawsuits and stoking panic over "Sharia law." Cornyn responded by introducing legislation to ban non-citizens who support Sharia law from entering the country. Political observers note the irony: such rhetoric seemed to fade after the Bush era only to resurface decades later.
For years, Democrats and national media predicted demographic shifts would turn Texas blue, only to see the Republican firewall hold. But some analysts say 2026 feels different, driven by Paxton's monumental liabilities, Trump's historic unpopularity, and Talarico's emergence as a rare talent who speaks authentically to voters exhausted by scandal and economic pain.
Author James Rodriguez: "Paxton's Trump blessing could crack open a state Republicans have taken for granted for decades, but only if voters decide that ideological purity cannot override basic standards of personal conduct."
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