Negotiations between Iran and the United States have stalled despite what both sides acknowledge as significant progress on many core issues, with Tehran flatly rejecting suggestions that a final agreement is close at hand.
Iran's lead negotiator Esmail Baghaei told reporters Monday that while substantial ground has been covered in talks, the path to a binding deal remains blocked by shifting US positions and what Tehran views as deliberate interference from Israel.
"It is correct to say that we have reached a conclusion on a large portion of the issues under discussion," Baghaei said at his weekly foreign ministry briefing. "But to say that this means the signing of an agreement is imminent, no one can make such a claim."
The statement undercuts optimism from US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who expressed hope Monday that a deal could materialize within days. Rubio acknowledged the complexity of coordinating with Iran's political system but insisted the Trump administration was committed to reaching an agreement, offering a stark alternative: "Either we will have a good deal or we will deal with this issue in another way, and we prefer to have a good deal."
President Trump echoed similar sentiments, posting on Truth Social that any final agreement would either be "great and meaningful, or there will be no deal at all."
Critical sticking points remain unresolved. Iran is demanding that a ceasefire in Lebanon be included as a formal component of any memorandum of understanding that would allow commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and prompt the US to lift its blockade on Iranian ports. This demand has emerged as a dealbreaker from Tehran's perspective.
The nuclear dimension of negotiations has also proven contentious. The Trump administration is pressing Iran to commit to disposing of its stockpile of highly enriched uranium, a move that faces domestic political backlash from Republicans who view any concession as weakness. Iran has previously indicated willingness to down-blend enriched uranium but refuses to transfer the material to the United States or Russia. Tehran has offered to suspend domestic enrichment for up to five years, falling short of the two-decade pause Washington is seeking.
On uranium specifically, Baghaei made clear that no substantive nuclear matters will be tackled in the current negotiations beyond a commitment to resume talks within 60 days.
Baghaei painted a picture of an American negotiating position in disarray. He cited "a wave of dismissals, contradictory statements, opposition from Congress and also opposition from parts of public opinion," describing the internal chaos in Washington as a fundamental obstacle to closing a deal.
The release of approximately $12 billion in Iranian assets currently frozen in Qatar stands as a central Iranian demand but represents a political minefield for Trump, who has faced withering criticism from Republican hawks. The president has already compared any asset release unfavorably to the $1.7 billion transferred to Iran during the 2015 nuclear accord negotiated by the Obama administration. Iran's central bank governor traveled to Qatar on Monday in connection with the frozen funds issue.
Baghaei also directed sharp criticism at Israel, asserting that Israeli opposition to the negotiations was predictable and unhelpful.
A particularly opaque element of the proposed agreement concerns the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-third of global seaborne oil passes. Iran insists that any mechanism governing passage through the waterway would be jointly managed with Oman, not unilaterally controlled by Tehran. Baghaei pushed back against characterizations that Iran was seeking to levy tolls on commercial shipping, instead describing what would be collected as "fees for navigational services." The distinction appeared largely semantic to regional observers who worry Iran could effectively nationalize a critical international waterway.
Inside Iran, reactions to the emerging framework have been decidedly lukewarm. Many analysts view the memorandum less as a path to resolving underlying tensions and more as a formula for managing hostility without genuinely ending it. The government is meanwhile preparing to restore internet access within a week following a vote by Iran's supreme national security council, though officials appear anxious about public reaction given soaring inflation and ongoing executions within the country.
Author James Rodriguez: "Tehran's refusal to declare victory prematurely shows why neither side should celebrate until papers are actually signed, but the gap between optimistic US rhetoric and Iran's cold water suggests the finish line remains farther away than Washington wants to admit."
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