Trump puts odds at 50/50 on Iran deal or military action, convenes war cabinet Sunday

Trump puts odds at 50/50 on Iran deal or military action, convenes war cabinet Sunday

President Trump said Saturday he would meet with key advisers to weigh Iran's latest proposal, with a decision expected by Sunday on whether to pursue a diplomatic agreement or resume military operations.

Trump described the calculus as a "solid 50/50" proposition, telling reporters he would either strike a "good" deal or "blow them to kingdom come." The meeting would include Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, with Vice President Vance also expected to attend.

Pakistani Field Marshal Asim Munir, who has been shuttling between Washington and Tehran, departed Iran on Saturday after meetings with top officials. Pakistan announced "encouraging progress toward a final understanding," though a final agreement had not materialized.

Trump laid out his bottom line for any deal: the agreement must address uranium enrichment and the disposition of Iran's existing nuclear stockpile. He signaled skepticism that these core issues would be covered in a letter of intent currently under discussion, which would instead commit both sides to 30 days of deeper negotiations after hostilities ceased.

The president rejected suggestions that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu harbored concerns about Trump crafting an overly favorable arrangement with Iran, dismissing the notion outright.

Trump's framing suggested limited middle ground. "I think one of two things will happen," he said. "Either I hit them harder than they have ever been hit, or we are going to sign a deal that is good." He acknowledged that his own team remained divided, with some advisers preferring diplomacy and others pushing for renewed military strikes, but positioned the final call as his alone to make.

The timing compressed decision-making considerably. With Trump planning to consult his negotiators and military planners on Saturday and reach a conclusion by Sunday, the window for last-minute diplomatic breakthroughs remained narrow. Pakistan's mediation effort appeared to have narrowed key differences, but the gap between what Trump demanded in a final agreement and what a preliminary letter of intent could realistically deliver remained substantial.

Author James Rodriguez: "Trump is gambling that his either/or ultimatum will force Iran's hand, but a 50/50 bet in nuclear diplomacy is no way to manage Middle East stability."

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