Donald Trump said he will huddle with his negotiating team today to weigh Iran's latest proposal, with a decision on military action expected by Sunday. The president described the odds of reaching a successful agreement with Tehran as "a solid 50/50," leaving the door open to what he characterized as striking the country "to kingdom come."
Trump will meet with special envoy Steve Witkoff, adviser Jared Kushner, and Vice President JD Vance to review the Iranian position. The group will also engage with mediators from Gulf nations, including Egypt, Pakistan, and Turkey. Pakistani officials say a memorandum of understanding aimed at ending the conflict is being "fine tuned" for presentation.
The compressed timeline reflects intensifying pressure from both capitals. Iran's parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf issued a stark warning on Saturday, telling Pakistani military leadership that if Trump "acts foolishly" and fighting resumes, the Iranian response "will certainly be more crushing and bitter than on the first day of the war." Ghalibaf claimed Tehran has rebuilt its military capabilities during the ceasefire that began in early April.
Tehran signaled it would not yield on core issues. Ghalibaf accused the United States of bad faith negotiating and insisted Iran would secure its "legitimate rights" through either diplomacy or battlefield action. Iranian state media reported the country is in the "final stage" of drafting a deal framework.
Pakistan has emerged as the key go-between. Its army chief, Syed Asim Munir, met separately with Iran's president Masoud Pezeshkian and foreign minister Abbas Araghchi on Saturday, focusing discussions on a 14-point Iranian peace proposal. Qatar has also injected itself into talks, with a Qatari delegation meeting Iranian and Pakistani mediators on Friday. Trump spoke with Qatar's emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani on Saturday to discuss "regional and international efforts to stabilise the ceasefire."
The current truce, now in place since early April, was meant to halt fighting and create space for negotiations over reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping lane carrying roughly one-fifth of the world's oil and gas, as well as Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile programs. Those talks have largely stalled, and the strait remains mostly closed.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio offered cautious optimism on Saturday, telling reporters in New Delhi that "some progress has been made" and hinting at possible developments. "There might be some news a little later today," Rubio said, though he acknowledged uncertainty. Mediators believe they are close to extending the ceasefire for 60 days and establishing a framework for nuclear negotiations, according to people briefed on the talks.
Trump met with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on Friday to review options for resuming air strikes. The president also announced he would skip his son's wedding this weekend, citing government business.
Potential targets remain undefined. Past threats included wiping out "a whole civilisation" and striking civilian infrastructure like bridges and energy facilities. Nuclear sites holding highly enriched uranium are protected by deep underground placement and would require complex bunker-busting operations. Drone stockpiles, ballistic missile facilities, and Iranian officials could also be in the crosshairs.
Military analysts have cast doubt on whether a fresh campaign would shift the balance in America's favor. The U.S. has depleted much of its advanced missile-defense interceptor stockpile and faces a vulnerable position in the region. Intelligence assessments suggest roughly 60 percent of Iran's missile and drone inventory remains intact from the first round of conflict.
Public appetite for continued conflict has waned. Surging gas prices and inflation tied to the Hormuz closure have fueled frustration, and Trump's approval rating stands at approximately 37 percent, marking a historic low.
Author James Rodriguez: "A Sunday deadline might sound dramatic, but the math behind it is brutal: Trump's depleted munitions, tanking approval ratings, and Iran's claim it rebuilt during the pause all suggest the leverage equation has shifted since March."
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