Federal forecasters are expecting a below-average Atlantic hurricane season in 2026, but the prediction comes with a troubling caveat: the nation's weather monitoring infrastructure has been significantly weakened by recent staffing cuts.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced Thursday that it expects eight to 14 named storms during the upcoming season, which runs from June 1 through November 30. Of those, one to three are projected to reach major hurricane status, classified as category 3 or higher with winds exceeding 111 mph. The forecast carries a 55% probability of below-normal activity, compared to a 35% chance of near-normal conditions and just 10% odds of an above-average season.
An average season typically produces 14 named storms with seven hurricanes, three of which become major. The 2026 outlook falls well short of those benchmarks.
Noaa administrator Neil Jacobs attributed the expected slowdown to a developing El Niño pattern, which typically suppresses Atlantic storm development. Forecasters calculate an 80% likelihood that El Niño conditions will reach moderate to strong intensity by late season, with an 98% overall probability the phenomenon will occur.
The Pacific basin tells a different story. The same El Niño conditions that quiet the Atlantic tend to energize eastern Pacific storms. Noaa projects 70% odds of above-normal Pacific activity, with forecasts ranging from 15 to 22 named storms and the potential to nearly double typical yearly hurricane frequency in that region. Meteorologist John Morales warned that this pattern could significantly increase exposure for populations in Mexico, southern California, and Hawaii.
However, forecasters struck a cautious note about the agency's ability to accurately track and predict storms this season. The Trump administration's personnel reductions have forced the National Weather Service to cut back on critical data collection methods, including satellite operations and weather balloon launches that meteorologists rely on for tropical storm forecasting.
Morales said staff shortages have left both Noaa and the National Weather Service stretched thin, eroding forecast confidence. Noaa's primary weather prediction model, the American Global Forecast System, has declined in accuracy and now performs at 2019 capability levels. The specific cause remains unclear, he noted, whether from lost atmospheric scientists or the interruption of regular balloon data collection.
National Weather Service director Ken Graham cautioned the public not to interpret a below-average forecast as permission to lower their guard. "Don't let those words change the way you prepare," he said during Thursday's announcement. "Preparedness really is absolutely everything."
Independent forecasting services have issued similarly modest predictions. Colorado State University projects 13 named storms with six becoming hurricanes and three reaching major status, while Accuweather expects 11 to 16 named storms with up to seven becoming hurricanes.
Scientists have emphasized that climate change is fundamentally altering hurricane behavior, creating more dramatic year-to-year swings and making the strongest storms more intense overall. Warming ocean temperatures globally have increased the likelihood that whichever storms do form will pack greater destructive power. Morales stressed that even a single direct hit from a major hurricane could prove catastrophic, a risk that remains independent of overall seasonal activity levels.
Author James Rodriguez: "A below-average season is no excuse for complacency, especially when the agency tasked with tracking these storms is operating on a shoestring budget."
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