Taipei is moving forward with measured resolve even as tensions spike over whether Washington will continue backing the island's defense. President Trump's recent remarks casting doubt on a $14 billion arms package and suggesting the weapons would be ineffective against China have rattled confidence in the U.S. commitment, but Taiwanese officials and residents say they're prepared for this kind of instability.
The uncertainty stems from Trump's comments after a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping, where he downplayed the military balance and suggested both sides should simply "cool it." Trump told Fox News that given the geography, the vast distance separating Washington from the island, and China's sheer military power, the weapons may not matter. "It's 59 miles away. We are 9,500 miles away," he said.
Some Trump advisers came away from the Xi meeting believing a Chinese military move on Taiwan had become more likely. Yet in Taipei itself, the reaction was subdued. Government officials and civil defense experts said they're accustomed to living under this kind of threat and are focused instead on what they can control.
Luo Wen-jia, secretary-general of the Straits Exchange Foundation, a semi-official body handling cross-strait civilian matters, told journalists that Taiwan walks a careful line. "Taiwan needs to strengthen our own self-defense," he said. "We also have to think about Taiwan's uniqueness, our geopolitics and what kind of risks will arise." He emphasized that the island will neither provoke Beijing nor allow itself to be dominated, acknowledging the delicate balance required.
Tsung-Yi Tang, representing the civil defense organization Kuma Academy, noted there is a "very high degree of sensitivity" in Taiwan about military threats and information campaigns from China. "But in terms of the daily operations, actually we are still more relaxed," he added.
Taiwan's government has pushed back on Trump's framing of weapons sales as a negotiating tool in the U.S.-China relationship. The foreign affairs ministry issued a statement saying that "U.S. arms sales to Taiwan are both part of U.S. security commitments under the Taiwan Relations Act and a key element of collective deterrence against regional threats." The statement also highlighted that China's military buildup is the real source of regional instability, driving countries throughout the area to strengthen defenses.
Despite Trump's skepticism, military analysts note that Taiwan is far from defenseless. The island's geography provides natural barriers with rough seas and steep mountains, and its population-wide approach to defense has been strengthened by Ukraine's example of resistance. The Taiwanese military recently conducted live-fire beach defense drills in preparation for potential threats.
The stakes are real. Xi has instructed China's military to prepare for a potential takeover by 2027, though many analysts doubt that specific timeline. Nonetheless, preparations are clearly underway. The People's Liberation Army conducted an encirclement exercise around Taiwan in 2025 and entered its air defense identification zone more than 3,000 times in 2024. Digital infrastructure also faces constant bombardment from Chinese operations.
The delayed $14 billion arms package isn't Taiwan's only security lifeline. Trump's administration approved an $11 billion shipment in December that included HIMARS launchers and howitzers, and Washington has armed Taipei consistently for decades. Still, the mixed signals from the new administration have left Taiwan's leaders scrambling to clarify their own defense strategy while maintaining the international support they depend on.
Author James Rodriguez: "Taiwan's gamble is clear: build indigenous defense capabilities fast enough to prove they're worth defending, because counting on Washington's consistency may no longer be an option."
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