Donald Trump's iron grip on Republican primary voters has delivered a spring of victories against party members who defied him. His endorsements have become a wrecking ball in intra-party contests, punishing GOP figures who broke ranks and rewarding loyalists.
Yet the power that makes him formidable in Republican primaries may become a liability as the campaign heads toward November. Trump has excelled at mobilizing his base to eliminate internal rivals, but that same intensity has done little to persuade independents and moderate swing voters whose support will determine the general election outcome.
The distinction matters enormously. Primary elections reward intense turnout and base enthusiasm. General elections turn on margins among persuadable voters in suburban areas and purple states. Trump's spring consolidation of conservative voter loyalty, impressive as it appears in delegate counts and primary margins, does not necessarily translate into the cross-ideological appeal required to beat Democrats in a general election.
Republicans have long calculated that Trump's ability to energize his core supporters outweighs other disadvantages. But heading into the fall campaign, GOP strategists are confronting the gap between dominating your own party and expanding the coalition needed for general election victory. The voters Trump has punished into submission in Republican contests are not the same voters who decide general elections.
Primary opponents have learned to avoid crossing Trump. The question now is whether that control over Republicans translates into persuading the independents and ticket-splitters who remain unconvinced by Trump's message.
Author Sarah Mitchell: "Trump proved he owns the Republican primary electorate, but owning your party's voters and winning over enough swing voters to win in November are two very different things."
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