Donald Trump consolidated power within the GOP this month by eliminating rivals who dared challenge his political control, but the victories may come at a steep price when Republicans face voters in the general election.
The former president's influence over Republican primaries proved nearly absolute. In Indiana, five state senators who opposed his redistricting agenda lost their races. In Louisiana, Trump's political machine blocked Sen. Bill Cassidy from advancing in his primary after he voted to convict Trump during the 2021 impeachment trial. The headline victory arrived Tuesday in Kentucky, where Trump backed Ed Gallrein in the primary against Rep. Thomas Massie, a Republican who had occasionally broken ranks on tax legislation and other issues. Gallrein won decisively with 54 percent of the vote in what became the most expensive House primary race on record in terms of ad spending.
Trump's allies framed the results as inevitable. James Blair, who runs Trump's political operation, told NBC News that opposing the former president is a losing strategy. "Thomas Massie is just the latest proof that being Democrats' favorite Republican is not a badge of honor in our party," Blair said.
But the larger Republican establishment expressed genuine alarm. A veteran GOP strategist who has worked across both the liberty and MAGA wings of the party described the primary losses as a troubling sign. "This was a revenge tour on a solid conservative vote who refused to break to the will of Trump," the person said anonymously. "Thomas Massie refused to be compromised. He refused to bend the knee, and for that he was taken out."
Massie himself had predicted this outcome months earlier, warning that his loss could trigger a cascade among Republicans afraid to challenge Trump. "There can always be this cascading effect," Massie said. "It's a big herd. The herd moves as a herd, right?"
Trump did not sweep every contest. In Georgia's governor's race, both candidates claimed his blessing, forcing him to clarify his endorsement of Lt. Gov. Burt Jones over billionaire Rick Jackson, who has spent over 80 million dollars of his own money on advertising.
The real problem for Republicans emerges now: Trump's primary dominance appears to correlate with Republican weakness in general elections. His approval ratings have tanked among independent voters, particularly over foreign policy concerns. Democrats need only four net Senate seats to flip the chamber, a goal increasingly seen as within reach.
The Texas Senate race exemplifies the potential damage. Trump endorsed state Attorney General Ken Paxton, who faces Democrat James Talarico in November. Paxton carries political baggage, including a 2023 impeachment by the GOP-controlled state House and his wife's divorce filing on "biblical grounds." Many Republicans believe Paxton was an inferior candidate to Sen. John Cornyn, and his nomination could force national GOP resources to defend a seat Republicans expected to hold comfortably.
Sen. Lindsey Graham acknowledged the uphill climb. "You don't have to be a rocket scientist to figure out the pathway for Paxton is there, but it's more uphill," the South Carolina Republican told reporters.
Democratic strategists are already capitalizing on the discord. "While the Texas GOP has been embroiled in a bitter, costly intraparty war that has fractured their base and left them drained of resources, Democratic enthusiasm has surged to its highest level in decades," said Maeve Coyle, a spokeswoman for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.
Author Sarah Mitchell: "Trump's ability to eliminate primary challengers is undeniable, but it's increasingly clear that enforcing loyalty through primary defeats may energize Democratic voters more than it solidifies Republican strength when the general election rolls around."
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