Pennsylvania's primary elections Tuesday revealed the battlefield Democrats will fight on this fall, with party strategists identifying four congressional districts as essential to any hope of retaking the House.
The stakes are high. Donald Trump won Pennsylvania by fewer than two points in 2024, energizing Democrats to target what they see as vulnerable Republican seats. With the GOP holding only a narrow majority in the chamber and redistricting having tilted the map slightly rightward, Pennsylvania has become a proving ground for Democratic gains.
In the first district, Bob Harvie, vice chair of the Bucks County Board of Commissioners, defeated former climate adviser Lucia Simonelli to earn the Democratic nomination. Harvie now faces an uphill climb against Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, the moderate Republican incumbent who ran unopposed and won re-election by nearly 13 points in 2024 despite the district backing Kamala Harris. Fitzpatrick has cultivated a reputation for bipartisanship, breaking with his party and President Trump on issues from healthcare subsidies to government spending.
The 10th district features a rematch shaping up between Republican Scott Perry and Janelle Stelson, a former local news anchor who just won the Democratic primary. Stelson lost to Perry by a single percentage point in 2024, making this one of the year's most competitive races. Perry, a four-term Freedom Caucus member, embraced election denial after 2020 and introduced Trump to a Justice Department official who shared those views ahead of the January 6 Capitol riot.
Bob Brooks, a union leader and former firefighter, won a crowded four-way Democratic primary in the seventh district covering the Lehigh Valley. He enters November as the favorite to flip the seat back after Republican Ryan Mackenzie defeated incumbent Susan Wild in 2024. Brooks arrived at his primary victory carrying endorsements from Gov. Josh Shapiro, Bernie Sanders, and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
In the eighth district, Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti emerged from the Democratic primary to challenge Republican Rob Bresnahan, who flipped the seat last cycle in a district that includes President Joe Biden's hometown.
Pennsylvania's third district, a deep blue Philadelphia area, offered a window into broader Democratic tensions. State Rep. Chris Rabb defeated State Senator Sharif Street and pediatric surgeon Ala Stanford in a closely watched primary that pit establishment backing against progressive insurgency. Rabb, who campaigned on universal healthcare and criticized military aid to Israel, will coast to victory in November given the district's overwhelming Democratic lean. His win signals appetite for anti-establishment candidates even in liberal strongholds as Democrats reckon with their presidential losses.
Altogether, 16 of Pennsylvania's 17 representatives are seeking re-election. Gov. Shapiro, the Democrat atop the ballot, ran unopposed and will face Republican Treasurer Stacy Garrity in the fall.
Author James Rodriguez: "Pennsylvania Democrats are right to treat these four districts as must-wins, but Fitzpatrick's proven ability to appeal across party lines makes the first district a genuine long shot even in a favorable climate."
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