The pressure campaign is intensifying. While Donald Trump was in Beijing this week, his administration ramped up an oil blockade that has pushed Cuba into a deepening humanitarian emergency. Nationwide blackouts have forced school closures and left hospitals struggling to function. The rare public protests that have erupted across the island signal just how dire conditions have become.
Surveillance flights now circle overhead. Federal prosecutors are preparing an indictment against Raúl Castro, the 94-year-old former president. Trump himself has made his ambitions clear, casually remarking that "Cuba is next" after celebrating what he described as the kidnapping of Venezuela's Nicolás Maduro in January.
The economic stranglehold is already severe. Cuba's fuel oil supply has run out. Tourism has collapsed. The Canadian mining company Sherritt abandoned a joint venture. Countries have cancelled contracts for Cuban doctors, eliminating one of the island's most vital revenue streams and depriving other nations of skilled medical professionals they had relied on.
CIA Director John Ratcliffe arrived in Havana this week with a blunt message: the US demands "fundamental changes." The list is extensive. Washington wants economic reform, the shutdown of Chinese and Russian intelligence operations, and reports suggest the removal of President Miguel Díaz-Canel himself. Such demands would cement the administration's message that it dictates terms across the Americas.
The political calculation is straightforward. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, whose family fled Cuba, has always taken a hardline stance. Cuban-Americans form a key part of Trump's political base. Cutting migration flows, which have surged in recent years, would appeal to supporters.
The decades-old embargo has been punitive, yet Cubans' frustration extends beyond US policy. The government failed to deliver on promised economic reforms when Barack Obama's thaw offered an opening. A disastrous 2021 currency restructuring, combined with intensified sanctions, exposed deep weaknesses. The violent crackdown on protests that followed shattered the faith of many who once believed in the revolution's promises.
Cuba's deputy prime minister has signaled openness to US business partnerships in select sectors. That overture fell flat. The military-run conglomerate Gaesa controls enormous swaths of the economy, and entrenched interests prefer the status quo, though some calculate they might profit more from accommodation with Washington.
A highly educated Cuban population could benefit from genuine economic opportunity. Instead, the country faces a choice between ongoing collapse, a deal that enriches the connected few, or military intervention. Trump speaks casually of "taking" Cuba, as though it were a prize to be claimed. It belongs to the Cuban people, and they deserve better than to be bargaining chips in a geopolitical game.
Author James Rodriguez: "Trump's appetite for regime change in Latin America is unmistakable, and Cuba has always been the trophy he covets most."
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