The Trump administration's sweeping restrictions on immigration are predominantly affecting people from the world's most climate-vulnerable countries, according to analysis of global climate adaptation data.
Of 39 nations facing full or partial US entry bans, 22 rank in the most vulnerable quarter globally when measured against climate impacts, according to assessment by the Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative. Chad and Niger, rated the two most climate-vulnerable countries worldwide, now face complete entry restrictions. Sudan, Somalia and Sierra Leone, all among the ten most climate-exposed nations, are similarly barred.
Honduras, ranked among the world's most vulnerable half of countries, has experienced intensifying storms, droughts, floods and coastal erosion. When Hurricane Mitch devastated the country in 1998, killing 7,000 people, many families saw migration to the United States as their only lifeline.
Evelyn was a teenager when Mitch struck. Her relatives in New York urged her mother to bring her and her sister north immediately. "There were bodies and dead animals floating in the water, the house was messed up, the furniture was all gone," Evelyn recalled. "I got sick because of the mosquitoes too. My uncle and aunt were just like, 'OK, just bring the kids over here, don't stay. It's dangerous.'" She now lives in New York with two daughters in university, but says new immigration barriers make it far harder for others facing similar circumstances.
Climate-driven storms of Mitch's severity are now more frequent as the atmosphere and oceans have warmed from fossil fuel burning. Yet the Trump administration has restricted asylum pathways and moved to eliminate temporary protected status (TPS) for people from Honduras and 12 other countries already residing in the US. Nearly half of those nations rank among the world's most climate-vulnerable places.
The UN estimates that severe heatwaves, droughts, storms and floods have displaced 250 million people globally over the past decade, equivalent to 70,000 displacements daily. In 2025 alone, nearly 30 million people were forced to relocate within their countries due to disasters, with wildfires as the largest single cause.
No official international pathway exists for climate refugees. US law and the UN's 1951 refugee convention do not recognize environmental disasters as grounds for protection in another country. The 1952 Immigration and Nationality Act defines refugees only as those fleeing persecution based on race, religion, nationality, membership in a social group or political viewpoint.
Jocelyn Perry, program manager of the climate displacement program at Refugees International, notes that developing countries now blacklisted by the US face mounting losses from crop failures, sea level rise and other climate impacts. "A house in Florida may be able to withstand a category four hurricane, but there are people around the world unable to deal with that in any way and they are bearing the brunt of this," Perry said.
Displacement often triggers secondary crises that become asylum grounds. When crops fail repeatedly and families move to urban areas where violence erupts, climate change has triggered the migration even if the asylum claim centers on violence itself, advocates explain.
Syria was granted TPS in 2024 partly due to drought-like conditions and falling wheat production. Ethiopia received TPS status based on severe drought and flooding that displaced more than 4 million people. Approximately 350,000 Haitians in the US hold TPS protection granted after the country suffered extreme weather events, including two major hurricanes since 2016.
The Trump administration has terminated TPS for multiple countries, with the Supreme Court set to rule on appeals involving Syria and Haiti by late June or early July.
A Sudan-based doctor who fled drought-accelerated conflict said he saw no hope for improvement. "It's too dry, there's not enough water, the lands were just left without anyone to cultivate them and millions have fled," he said. Sudan remains on the TPS list only through October. "It would be very, very tough to go back," the doctor added, expressing concern that fundamental legal principles no longer apply.
Democratic lawmakers introduced the Climate Displaced Persons Act in 2021 and 2023 to amend immigration law and provide protection for those displaced by climate disasters. Massachusetts Senator Ed Markey argued the measure is urgent as the Trump administration cuts foreign aid programs designed to build resilience and blocks pathways for those seeking refuge.
Hannah Flamm, deputy director of policy at the International Refugee Assistance Program, noted that while global data exists on internal climate displacement, virtually no data tracks international climate-driven migration. "Whether or not it passes, it is critical to mobilize advocacy and to reinforce the need to meet this need," she said.
The prospect for new climate migration frameworks appears dim under current political conditions, with climate concerns sidelined as the administration pursues broader deportation policies.
Author James Rodriguez: "This administration is simultaneously fueling the climate disasters displacing millions while slamming the door on people trying to escape them, creating a humanitarian collision that will only accelerate."
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