Nebraska's Democratic Party heads into Tuesday's primary elections facing an internal battle that party insiders describe as unusually fierce, with candidates and outside groups locked in a spending war that has already exceeded $5 million in television advertising.
The fight centers on Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District, where local organizer Denise Powell and state Sen. John Cavanaugh are competing to challenge Republican City Council member Brinker Harding in November. Harding, who has secured the GOP nomination unopposed and won endorsements from retiring Rep. Don Bacon and both of Nebraska's Republican senators, will face the Democrat who emerges from Tuesday's primary.
The Democratic contest has grown so contentious that Barry Rubin, a nonpartisan Nebraska political operative and former state Democratic Party executive director, told NBC News the race has become "officially ugly," with "the knives out" between the two camps. Powell has been labeled "dark money Denise" in Republican-backed ads, while she and her allies have attacked Cavanaugh over his decision to remain in Nebraska's state Legislature, a key position where he represents a Democratic vote in an otherwise Republican chamber.
Powell's strategy hinges on a liability for Cavanaugh: if he wins the House seat, Republican Gov. Jim Pillen would appoint his replacement in the Legislature, potentially handing Republicans a supermajority to advance priorities including abortion restrictions and changes to Nebraska's Electoral College system. The state's 2nd Congressional District has consistently voted Democratic in presidential elections and awards one of Nebraska's five electoral votes to the Democratic presidential nominee in those contests.
"This one electoral seat may be the thing that gets us across the finish line in 2028," Powell said, pointing to what she calls the "blue dot" issue that has now saturated Omaha with campaign signs. Powell has been endorsed by EMILY's List, the Congressional Hispanic Caucus' BOLD PAC, the Congressional Black Caucus PAC, and Elect Democratic Women. Cavanaugh, meanwhile, has backing from the Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC, the state's AFL-CIO, and nearly a dozen local unions.
Both candidates dismissed suggestions that the primary bruising will damage the eventual nominee heading into November. Cavanaugh argued that the heavy advertising has boosted his name recognition, saying that when he knocks on doors, "everyone knows who I am immediately." Powell characterized the attacks as distractions from the core issue of protecting Nebraska's electoral vote distribution.
The 2nd District has become a Democratic target after President Donald Trump lost it by 5 points in 2024, even as Bacon won his reelection bid by 2 points. Bacon's retirement has energized Democrats who believe they can flip the seat this year.
Complicating Nebraska's Senate race is a murky Democratic primary where an independent candidate from 2024 could emerge as the main challenger to GOP Sen. Pete Ricketts. Dan Osborn, who lost to Sen. Deb Fischer by 7 points two years ago, is running in the Democratic primary alongside pharmacy technician Cindy Burbank and pastor William Forbes.
Forbes drew immediate suspicion from Nebraska Democrats after filing to run just before the deadline. The pastor, who voted for Trump and attended a training session for conservative candidates, has been accused of being a Republican plant designed to split the anti-Ricketts vote. Forbes told CNN he is a lifelong Democrat who entered the race because the party had not fielded a candidate. He denied the allegation of being a plant.
Burbank said she filed her own candidacy partly out of concern that Forbes would siphon votes from Osborn in November. She told NBC News she would exit the race if she determined she could not win in the general election. Republicans attempted to remove Burbank from the ballot, arguing she planned to drop out after the primary, but Nebraska's Supreme Court ruled that officials missed a filing deadline for the challenge.
The Republican primary for Senate features Ricketts, a first-term senator who secured Trump's endorsement this cycle. Trump had backed a rival candidate against Ricketts in 2022, but the two have now reconciled politically.
Across the border in West Virginia, GOP Sen. Shelley Moore Capito is seeking her third term, touting Trump's endorsement as she faces five other Republicans in the primary. State Sen. Tom Willis, who has self-funded his campaign, has argued that Capito has "lost her way" and no longer reflects West Virginia's conservative values.
West Virginia's House race features another rematch: GOP Rep. Carol Miller faces Derrick Evans, a former state lawmaker who pleaded guilty in 2024 to a felony related to entering the Capitol during the January 6, 2021, riot. Miller decisively beat Evans in 2024's primary with 63 percent of the vote, but Evans has emerged as a strong fundraiser with approximately $1.2 million spent on his current bid.
Polls in West Virginia close at 7:30 p.m. Eastern time and in Nebraska at 9 p.m. Eastern time on Tuesday.
Author Sarah Mitchell: "Nebraska's Democratic primary has turned into a proxy fight over the party's ability to hold the line on electoral math when it matters most, and the winner will carry real scars into a district Republicans suddenly have to take seriously."
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