The Trump administration's declaration that illegal border crossings have stopped entirely is unraveling as field operations reveal a more complicated picture. While the overall flow of asylum seekers has declined sharply since the president took office, smugglers and cartels continue moving people across the southern frontier with regularity.
Captain Timothy Williams of the Cochise County Sheriff's Office in Arizona runs a surveillance program called SABRE that monitors illegal crossings across the remote terrain between California and New Mexico. His team tracks 200 to 300 people attempting to cross each month, with roughly a third getting apprehended. "We're still seeing the groups cross in the very difficult terrain to work, head-to-toe camouflage, large backpacks, things like that," Williams says.
The data contradicts the administration's absolutist messaging. In March, Border Patrol encountered approximately 8,000 people attempting illegal entry, a 15 percent jump from the same month last year. Multiple sectors along the border showed increased arrest numbers compared to March 2025, prompting officials to reassign roughly 200 Border Patrol agents to the Laredo sector in Texas to address a spike in gotaways, people detected crossing but never apprehended.
Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth made the administration's position unmistakable in December, declaring at the Reagan National Defense Forum that "the number of illegals crossing into our country is zero," while making a circular gesture with his hands. White House communications director Steven Cheung amplified the message on social media, claiming zero border crossings for nine consecutive months. Border Patrol Chief Michael Banks echoed the theme, stating flatly that "the Border is Closed."
Republican Senator James Lankford of Oklahoma, who heads the Senate border security subcommittee, offered a more measured assessment. Cartels view smuggling as "extremely lucrative" and will continue testing new methods, he said, making the claim of zero activity implausible. "That's not going to stop, which is why we got to have good, consistent enforcement."
White House Border Czar Tom Homan told reporters the border is "the most secure that it's been in my lifetime," though he acknowledged more work remains. The dramatic decrease in crossings after Trump's inauguration surprised even administration officials with its speed.
Smuggling groups operate in difficult, remote terrain and maintain sophisticated equipment and tactics. Sheriff Mark Dannels of Cochise County, Arizona, oversees SABRE operations and describes the current state as "manageable" rather than impenetrable. The program shares data with other law enforcement agencies across the region.
Official gotaway statistics remain incomplete and inconsistent. Fiscal year 2025 saw roughly 70,000 reported gotaways according to congressional budget documents, but these figures are not regularly released by sector or updated on a predictable schedule. Lankford said the Department of Homeland Security hasn't recently briefed his subcommittee on these numbers.
Mark Morgan, who served as acting commissioner of Customs and Border Protection under the previous administration, warned that the political narrative has outpaced operational reality. "While I agree we have the most secure border in our lifetime, significant vulnerabilities still remain and a lot more needs to be done before we can claim it's 'secure,'" he said. "Unfortunately, many Republicans are waving the mission accomplished flag as they portray the border as being completely secure because they see it as a political win. It's misleading and provides the country with a false sense of security."
Author James Rodriguez: "The administration painted itself into a corner with 'zero' rhetoric that field data doesn't support, and that's a political problem they created themselves."
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