A new study challenges the central argument behind President Trump's aggressive immigration enforcement: that deporting undocumented workers creates jobs for American citizens. The research finds the opposite, at least in key sectors of the economy.
The employment impact has been measurably negative for U.S.-born men with high school educations or less, particularly in construction and related fields, according to a working paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research. The study, the first to examine national labor market effects of Trump's current ICE enforcement wave, reveals no offsetting wage gains for American workers in affected industries.
Chloe East, an associate professor of economics at the University of Colorado Boulder, and research assistant Elizabeth Cox conducted the analysis. They found that ICE activity produced a "negative and significant impact" on employment in sectors most exposed to immigration enforcement. But the real story lies in understanding why job losses occur at all when undocumented workers depart.
The dynamic defies the popular narrative that immigrants and American workers compete directly for the same positions. Instead, workers from these groups often perform different roles within the same industry. In construction, for example, undocumented immigrants fill entry-level labor positions while U.S.-born workers take jobs as electricians, roofers, and other skilled trades.
"When a construction company has a hard time finding people to do those jobs, they're going to build fewer homes, and fewer new buildings in general, and hire less people in general, including jobs that are typically taken by U.S.-born workers," East explained to Axios.
The research also uncovered a "chilling effect" far more pronounced than during previous deportation efforts. The indiscriminate nature of current enforcement has made immigrant communities so fearful that many avoid leaving home, disrupting labor supply chains even for workers who remain in the country legally. In areas hit hardest by ICE activity, employment among likely undocumented workers still in the U.S. dropped 4 percent in affected industries.
The White House dismissed the findings. Spokesperson Abigail Jackson said in a statement that "there is no shortage of American minds and hands to grow our labor force" and that Trump's agenda represents a commitment to enforcing immigration laws while creating American jobs.
National employment figures have remained relatively robust, with strong hiring numbers reported through March. However, Wall Street Journal analysis found that industries where immigrants with limited education are heavily represented have experienced slower wage growth since Trump took office. The disruption remains largely invisible in broader economic data because it concentrates in specific sectors and regions hardest hit by enforcement operations.
Author James Rodriguez: "The study exposes a painful gap between campaign rhetoric and labor market reality: you can't simply remove workers and expect job openings to materialize for Americans if the economy actually needs those workers to function."
Comments