Indiana Republicans who blocked President Donald Trump's redistricting scheme are about to learn whether their defiance carries a political price. In what amounts to the first major test of Trump's ability to punish intraparty rivals, seven state senators are facing well-funded primary challengers backed by the former president tonight.
The conflict traces back to a failed effort by Trump to pressure GOP state senators into supporting a mid-decade congressional redistricting plan. Had it succeeded, the party could have gained two additional congressional seats. The seven senators who helped kill the proposal are now Trump targets, each facing Trump-endorsed opponents in competitive races across the state.
Seven Battles, Each With Its Own Stakes
In the 1st District, a Chicago suburbs swing seat that Trump carried by just single digits, incumbent Dan Dernulc faces Trevor De Vries. Dernulc apparently calculated that backing an aggressive partisan gerrymander would backfire in a district that remains politically divided.
The 11th District presents a fascinating puzzle. It sprawls across St. Joseph and Elkhart counties, politically distinct worlds. The St. Joseph portion includes competitive suburbs north of South Bend, where Trump won by only 3 points. Elkhart County, by contrast, is deep Trump country, where he won by 35 points over Kamala Harris. Incumbent Linda Rogers faces Brian Schmutzler in what could be decided by turnout dynamics. Critically, Indiana lacks party registration, meaning Democrats can vote in GOP primaries. A sizable Democratic population in St. Joseph County could play a decisive role.
In the 19th District, Trump-backed Blake Feichter is challenging Travis Holdman, a nearly 20-year incumbent and member of state Senate GOP leadership. The district includes Fort Wayne suburbs and rural stretches with a large Amish population. Trump won it by nearly 40 points, but Holdman's institutional power may provide some insulation.
Jim Buck, now 80, is fighting to survive in the 21st District after initially considering retirement. His district breaks into three parts: blue-collar Kokomo in Howard County, rural Trump-strong Tipton County, and fast-growing Westfield in Hamilton County. The professional-class suburb will likely be Buck's battlefield. Notably, he has backing from Mike Pence, Trump's estranged former vice president.
Spencer Deery and Paula Copenhaver are rematching in the 23rd District after competing in a crowded 2022 primary that Deery won. Much of the district is rural and Trump-aligned, though Tippecanoe County, home to Purdue University, tilts against Trump. Deery's former ties to ex-Governor Mitch Daniels may matter here.
Greg Goode in the 38th District faces Brenda Wilson, though a second candidate named Alexandra Wilson complicates the picture. Trump won the district by nearly 30 points, yet pro-Trump forces failed to remove Alexandra Wilson from the ballot despite earlier efforts to do so.
Greg Walker in the 41st District initially announced retirement before the redistricting battle erupted. After voting against the redrawn map, he faced Trump's anger, reversed course, and decided to run again. State Representative Michelle Davis, who secured Trump's backing, already jumped in the race. The district splits between Davis's base in Johnson County and Walker's home turf in Bartholomew County, which is Mike Pence's hometown.
Iowa Looms as Surprise Midterm Battleground
Beyond Indiana, Republicans are bracing for Iowa to become a far more competitive state than recent voting patterns suggest. Vice President JD Vance is landing in Iowa today to campaign for Rep. Zach Nunn, a signal of GOP anxiety in a state that has shifted rightward over recent election cycles.
Iowa's political landscape suddenly looks jumbled. The GOP faces a crowded June 2 gubernatorial primary while Democrat Rob Sand, the state auditor, runs unopposed as the presumptive nominee. An open U.S. Senate seat, empty for the first time in 18 years since a Democrat won it, is drawing massive Republican attention. The main Republican-aligned Senate super PAC is preparing to spend nearly $30 million in advertising there.
At least two Republican-held House seats could flip Democratic in Iowa this fall, making Nunn's race a focus of national GOP efforts to protect its House majority. Iowa Republican Party Chair Jeff Kaufmann acknowledged the state's sudden prominence. Majorities in both chambers of Congress, he said, could turn on Iowa races.
Democrats are equally aware. Michigan Senator Elissa Slotkin, a potential 2028 presidential contender, visited last month to campaign for Nunn's challenger, state Senator Sarah Trone Garriott. Slotkin argued that Iowa, written off by many Democrats after trending right, remains genuinely competitive.
Author Sarah Mitchell: "Trump's Indiana purge could reshape state politics, but Iowa's sudden competitiveness is the bigger story Republicans should fear heading into fall."
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