Vice President JD Vance is heading to Iowa on Tuesday to campaign with Rep. Zach Nunn, a signal of deepening Republican anxiety about a state that has drifted rightward but now poses unexpected electoral risks heading into this fall's midterm races.
The visit reflects a broader GOP scramble across Iowa. Republicans face a chaotic primary for governor, a Senate race they're defending heavily despite favorable recent history, and at least two House seats that could flip to Democrats. The convergence of these battles has put the state back in the national spotlight after years of being written off as safely conservative.
"Iowa is in the crosshairs again this year," said Jeff Kaufmann, the Iowa GOP chair. "A wide-open Senate seat, potentially three competitive congressional seats. Majorities in the Senate and the House pass through Iowa. And we've got an open governor's race."
Kaufmann expects a parade of national figures through Iowa in coming months, noting that Vance's Tuesday appearance will likely be the first of many. The vice president, a potential 2028 presidential contender, is using the state's early caucuses to build his profile while shoring up House seats.
Democrats are matching that energy. Sen. Elissa Slotkin of Michigan, another likely 2028 candidate, visited last month to support state Sen. Sarah Trone Garriott, who is challenging Nunn in the 3rd District. Slotkin warned that the state has been underestimated.
"There's a lot more in play here than Washington thinks," Slotkin said. "Eight years ago, this was a swing state, and I think a lot of people have written it off. And I think that's ill-advised."
The governor's race turns messy
Iowa's Republican primary for governor has become a particular headache for the party. Gov. Kim Reynolds did not seek a third full term, leaving the field wide open. Rep. Randy Feenstra emerged early as the frontrunner among five candidates, but his coronation never materialized.
Zach Lahn, a farmer and businessman, has shaken the race with a self-funded campaign and backing from a group aligned with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s "Make America Healthy Again" movement. The field also includes former state Administrative Services Director Adam Steen, state Rep. Eddie Andrews, and former state Rep. Brad Sherman.
Donald Trump has not endorsed anyone, disappointing some Republicans who hoped his intervention would clear the field. If no candidate reaches 35 percent in next month's primary, grassroots delegates at a convention will choose the nominee, adding another layer of uncertainty.
"Randy Feenstra is the only Republican who can defeat Rob Sand and keep the Governor's office in conservative hands," Feenstra's spokesperson said in a statement. "Iowans trust Randy because he delivers results and keeps his promises."
But other party insiders are less certain. State Rep. Ray Sorensen, a central committee member, offered only: "I don't know. Grab the popcorn and sit down. Republicans are trying to find out who their guy is. The Democrats already know."
That Democratic clarity centers on State Auditor Rob Sand, who faces no opposition in his primary. Sand has cultivated a moderate image while avoiding concrete positions that could alienate either progressive or conservative Democrats. GOP officials dismiss his advantage as overstated.
"That's the con," said Kollin Crompton, spokesman for the Republican Governors Association. "Campaign as a moderate, govern like a liberal. It's the same playbook Democrats used with Abigail Spanberger in Virginia. Iowans won't fall for it."
Democrats counter that Sand's uncontested primary is a strategic gift. He's building a broad coalition while Republican candidates tear into each other. Kim Reynolds, the likely GOP opponent's predecessor, ranked as the most unpopular governor in the country for two consecutive years, according to Democratic data.
The Senate race presents a different challenge for Republicans. Rep. Ashley Hinson is the clear frontrunner to win the GOP nomination for the seat being vacated by Joni Ernst. But Democrats have a bitter primary between state Rep. Josh Turek and state Sen. Zach Wahls that has exposed ideological rifts.
The fact that Republicans are deploying major resources suggests they view the general election as genuinely competitive. The Senate Leadership Fund, the main GOP super PAC, committed at least $29 million to an Iowa advertising blitz designed to boost Hinson. That spending level mirrors what the fund invested in Iowa during Ernst's 2020 re-election, when she won by 6.5 percentage points.
"Ashley Hinson is a tremendous candidate and will be a critical part of the Republican Senate majority," the Senate Leadership Fund said in a statement. "We look forward to supporting her to ensure Iowa continues to be represented by a strong conservative senator."
Iowa hasn't elected a Democrat to the Senate in 18 years, but the heavy national spending signals genuine Republican concern that Hinson could be vulnerable. Democrats are planning to attack her support for Trump's tariffs, her record on Medicaid, and her backing of the Roe v. Wade overturn.
The House battleground centers on Nunn's 3rd District and the 1st District, where Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meels faces a formidable challenge from former state Rep. Christina Bohannan. Both are top Democratic targets. The 2nd District, which Hinson is abandoning, is also in play, with state Rep. Lindsay James leading the Democratic primary.
Nunn's race has already turned vicious. Republicans have attacked his opponent Trone Garriott's work as a Lutheran minister, highlighting her defense of a Wiccan prayer at the Iowa State Capitol and her participation as a pastor in a satanist couple's wedding. Trone Garriott said she was "irritated" when asked to pick scriptures for that ceremony but believed the experience taught her that "life and people and love are not perfect."
Nunn's campaign is pushing back hard, with insiders planning to argue that "everyday Iowans get a lecture" from Trone Garriott while "witches and satanists get defended in op-eds."
Trone Garriott fired back by attacking Nunn's vote for Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill Act and his stance on tariffs. "Politicians like Zach Nunn are attacking my faith and my ministry, because I've had the courage to call them out," she said. "He voted to take away health care from my neighbors, and people are losing their doctors."
She also noted Nunn's scheduled appearance with Vance, suggesting he was more interested in courting Washington politicians than listening to his constituents.
Author Sarah Mitchell: "Iowa has become the proving ground for whether Republicans can hold the line in a state they thought they'd locked down, and the answer so far is less certain than anyone in GOP leadership would like."
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