A fresh poll suggests the Texas Senate race could tilt Democratic, with state legislator James Talarico outperforming two rival Republican candidates in head-to-head scenarios ahead of the May primary runoff.
The Texas Public Opinion Research survey of 1,018 likely voters found Talarico leading incumbent Senator John Cornyn by three points, 44% to 41%. Against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, Talarico's advantage widens to five points, 46% to 41%.
The results arrive as Democrats hunt for Senate gains in November. Republicans currently hold a 53-47 edge in the chamber, forcing Democrats to flip four seats to regain the majority. While the Senate remains a steeper climb than the House, recent polling gives Democrats genuine hope for significant gains.
Cornyn has held his Senate seat since 2002 and served four consecutive terms. Paxton, the state's chief law enforcement officer, has built a reputation as a conservative firebrand but faces baggage from a 2023 impeachment tied to misconduct charges. Both men are now competing in a primary runoff scheduled for May 26.
Talarico, a former seminarian, has built his political brand by blending Christian faith with progressive positions. The polling breakdown reveals where his coalition originates: Black voters, Latino voters, college-educated voters, moderates, and independents all show strong support for the Democrat. These blocs could prove decisive in a general election.
Neither Cornyn nor Paxton has secured an endorsement from Donald Trump, despite both actively pursuing one. Trump has described each as "electable" and "great people" while declining to choose between them. That fence-sitting could matter: Trump's backing has become the gold standard for Republican viability in Texas primary contests.
The race remains fluid. The May runoff will determine which Republican faces Talarico in November, and dynamics could shift substantially once a nominee emerges and begins campaigning against the Democratic challenger at full volume.
Author James Rodriguez: "A three-point lead for a Democratic challenger in Texas is newsworthy, but Talarico will need these favorable numbers to hold up once the Republican primary settles and Cornyn or Paxton can marshal the full force of the GOP machine against him."
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