A dangerous system is bearing down on the central United States on Monday, with forecasters warning of potentially violent tornadoes, damaging winds and massive hail across a swath affecting nearly 50 million people in the mid-Mississippi Valley and Midwest.
The Storm Prediction Center has issued a level 4 out of 5 severe thunderstorm risk for southwest Illinois and southeast Missouri, encompassing the St. Louis area and surrounding regions. The alert warns of "multiple strong to intense tornadoes, widespread severe/damaging wind gusts and scattered large to very large hail," with some hailstones expected to reach baseball size.
Wind gusts are forecast to reach 60 to 70 miles per hour, creating conditions ripe for significant property damage. The National Weather Service has outlined potential impacts including vehicle damage from hail, extensive tree damage, and structural damage to mobile homes, roofs and outbuildings.
Tornadoes Monday could reach EF2 to potentially EF3 strength, according to National Weather Service warning coordination meteorologist Evan Bentley, meaning "strong" to "severe" classifications on the Enhanced Fujita Scale.
Kansas City fire officials reported an early wave of impacts even before the main storm arrived. Battalion Chief Riley Nolan said the department handled 11 water rescues involving vehicles before 6 a.m. Monday, mostly in flood-prone areas following heavy rains. No boats were needed and no injuries occurred during those rescues.
The National Weather Service is urging residents to prepare immediately. Guidance includes moving to an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building, avoiding windows, and seeking shelter well away from exterior walls.
Monday's severe weather is expected to be just the beginning of a multi-day threat. Meteorologists say moist and unstable air will continue surging northward ahead of a cold front, setting conditions for several days of severe weather and heavy rainfall across the lower Mississippi Valley and mid-South through the week.
As that system pushes south and meets a dryline in Texas, another round of thunderstorm clusters capable of severe hazards is expected to develop, potentially bringing scattered flash flooding by late in the week. Tuesday's severe weather is forecast to be less intense and widespread than Monday's event.
The ominous forecast comes just days after a tornado tore through northern Texas on Saturday night, killing at least two people and injuring at least six others.
Author James Rodriguez: "This is shaping up as a serious multi-day event, not just a quick afternoon blow through, and that extended threat window is what really worries meteorologists most."
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