Iran has no nuclear weapons. Yet. But after repeated strikes by the US and Israel, the logic for acquiring them grows harder to resist.
US intelligence officials and UN inspectors have found no credible evidence that Iran has built a nuclear weapon or attempted to since at least 2003, when inspectors exposed a covert program. But Trump's declaration of war in February and his threats to bomb Iranian civilization back to the stone age are rapidly changing the calculus in Tehran.
Military attacks without warning, even during diplomatic negotiations, have convinced Iran's hardline leadership that nuclear weapons are the only reliable deterrent against future aggression. Two unprovoked strikes in a year make western security guarantees look worthless. The lesson from Ukraine is stark: in 1994, it gave up its nuclear arsenal for promises of protection that evaporated when Russia invaded in 2014.
The killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on the first day of the war may have particular significance. His binding religious edict forbidding development of an Iranian bomb likely died with him, removing a major domestic obstacle to the program.
Acquiring nuclear weapons no longer requires building them from scratch. North Korea, a longtime Iranian ally, has both the weapons and the track record of proliferation. Kim Jong-un covertly sent troops to help Russia in Ukraine. Sending nuclear expertise or even finished warheads to Iran would fit his established pattern. Russia, already collaborating with Iran on nuclear energy projects, cannot be ruled out either.
Attempts to bomb away Iran's nuclear capacity ignore a hard truth: scientific knowledge survives cruise missiles. Indigenous expertise, once developed, cannot be destroyed. And Tehran need not rely on rebuilding at home when procurement from willing suppliers remains an option.
The cascading consequences could reshape global security. If Iran acquires nukes out of desperation, will Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Turkey follow suit? The Middle East arms race would accelerate. But the problem extends far beyond one region. The precedent matters everywhere. Taiwan watches Iran's fate and faces the same question: should deterrence come from nuclear weapons? Japan and South Korea grapple with identical concerns.
Trump and Netanyahu operate under a dangerous delusion: that military force can resolve the Iran question. They ignore that Iranians will neither forgive nor forget the destruction visited on their country, regardless of which regime holds power. The grievances are durable. The desire for a shield against future aggression is rational.
The double standard in Trump's approach is glaring. North Korea poses a genuine and demonstrated nuclear threat, yet it receives diplomatic overtures. Iran, which lacks nuclear weapons, receives bombing campaigns. The difference cannot be explained by the behavior of either regime. It comes down to one simple fact: Trump does not attack countries that can strike back. That message resonates across the developing world.
The broader collapse of arms control is on full display. Russia and the US modernize massive arsenals while ignoring non-proliferation obligations. The 1968 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty obligates nuclear powers to reduce and eliminate their weapons. They do the opposite. Israel never signed the treaty. Trump abandoned the Iranian nuclear deal in 2015, trashed cold war arms control agreements, and refused to renew key treaties.
The NPT review conference opening in New York faces an avalanche of challenges: unchecked modernization programs, arms control collapse, resumed nuclear testing, and proliferation risks spreading unchecked. The dream of a world without nuclear weapons is fading.
If negotiations can somehow produce a just settlement and security guarantees that Iranians actually believe, the calculation might change. But Tehran has learned from Ukraine's experience and North Korea's survival. As long as nuclear powers wield military superiority with impunity, the logic points in one direction.
Author James Rodriguez: "The great irony is that Trump's campaign to prevent Iranian nukes may end up guaranteeing them."
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