Ron DeSantis is moving forward with a midterm redistricting push in Florida that has alienated fellow Republicans, drawn legal fire, and raised the risk of harming GOP incumbents rather than helping them. The governor has called a special legislative session in Tallahassee to redraw the state's 28 congressional districts, a gambit that could yield between two and five Republican-leaning seats but threatens to weaken the party's existing strongholds.
The move comes as Trump's broader redistricting agenda has faltered. After the White House pushed Texas Republicans to redraw their maps last year, Democratic-led states responded with their own redraws, neutralizing much of the GOP advantage. Political analysts now expect neither party will gain more than a handful of seats from the entire midterm redistricting cycle regardless of Florida's outcome.
National Democrats have seized on Florida as Trump's last redistricting opportunity. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries told reporters this week that his party will target Florida seats in 2026, a shift from recent election cycles. "Our message to Florida Republicans is, 'F around and find out,'" Jeffries said. DeSantis fired back, mockingly inviting Democrats to campaign in Florida and offering to cover their lodging and fishing trips at the governor's mansion.
Florida's state constitution creates unusual legal obstacles for the redistricting effort. Unlike other states where lawmakers openly discuss partisan gains, Florida law prohibits maps showing "intent" to favor one party. Republicans have tried to sidestep this constraint by framing the effort as correcting vestiges of a court-approved Democratic map from 2012, though DeSantis and GOP lawmakers themselves drew the current maps just a few years ago, winning a commanding 20-8 advantage in the delegation.
Legal challenges are already materializing. Democratic attorney Marc Elias has filed suit arguing that DeSantis overstepped constitutional authority by unilaterally calling the special session. A group called No Partisan Maps plans protests at the state Capitol when the session opens. These lawsuits could complicate the entire process, especially given the constitutional language about partisan intent.
The rebellion within Republican ranks poses a more immediate problem for DeSantis. Congressional Republicans, particularly those representing districts that could be redrawn, have expressed alarm. Rep. Daniel Webster warned colleagues that redistricting is a "slippery slope" and urged DeSantis to abandon the effort. Conservative strategist Karl Rove echoed the concern on Fox News, noting that Republicans would have to strip GOP votes from safe seats to create new ones, potentially costing the party seats in the midterms when Democrats already show momentum in special elections.
State lawmakers have been equally hesitant. Several Republican legislators told NBC News they see the push as DeSantis' personal project, not a legislative priority, and that many harbor lingering resentment after his failed 2024 presidential campaign. One GOP lawmaker said bluntly: "There is no one that wants to do this here. This is a DeSantis-driven ship." Another estimated they would pass maps "as long as they are not too egregious" but stressed that few actually support the idea.
The core risk is geographic. GOP operatives worry that tampering with districts in Miami and Tampa could weaken Republicans Carlos Gimenez and Maria Salazar in South Florida and Laurel Lee and Anna Paulina Luna near Tampa. Any aggressive redraw targeting Democratic seats in those areas could backfire, diluting Republican strength.
House Speaker Mike Johnson has urged Florida Republicans to proceed, citing Virginia's recent redistricting approval that could flip four seats to Democrats as a reason to act. The White House is monitoring the situation but has maintained distance, concerned that aggressive involvement could invite additional legal scrutiny. DeSantis has not yet released proposed maps or indicated his specific targets.
Author Sarah Mitchell: "DeSantis is gambling with his own party's House majority to score a redistricting win, and his fellow Republicans are signaling they may not follow him off this cliff."
Comments