President Donald Trump's standing with voters has deteriorated to levels below where he stood before Republicans lost control of the House in 2018, according to fresh polling data that underscores mounting headwinds as the midterm elections approach.
A Fox News survey released this week found that just 34% of registered voters approve of Trump's handling of the economy. In October 2018, when the GOP suffered a 40-seat House defeat, that figure stood at 49%. The gap widens on inflation specifically: only 28% of voters approve of his handling of that issue today.
An NBC News Decision Desk Poll released Sunday corroborated the economic weakness, showing 32% of adults approve of Trump's handling of inflation and the cost of living. The same poll registered his overall job approval at 37%, the lowest point of his second term so far. That marks a steady decline from 39% in February, 42% in December 2025, and 45% a year ago.
Fox's broader approval tracking tells a similar story. Trump has dropped from 49% overall approval in March 2025 to 42% now. The contrast to 2018 is stark: eight years ago, his overall approval rating sat at 47%, five points higher than his current standing.
The erosion reflects deep public anxiety over the economy and inflation, issues that dominate voter concerns. Polling also shows widespread dissatisfaction tied to the Iran war, which has pushed gas prices higher and compounded economic frustration. Though Trump has lost ground across his approval ratings, the decline has been gradual rather than catastrophic.
One bright spot remains immigration and border security, historically Trump's strongest terrain. Fox's latest poll shows 46% of registered voters approve of his handling of immigration, though that still leaves him underwater on an issue his campaign has emphasized.
The political calculus differs from 2018 in one critical way: Trump's core Republican voters have largely stuck with him despite economic discontent, cushioning him from wholesale abandonment. Yet the GOP still faces the same structural challenge it did before the last midterms, when the House flipped to Democrats. The party has roughly six months to reverse course before voters return to the polls.
Author Sarah Mitchell: "If Trump's numbers don't recover from here, expect another bloodbath in the House, and possibly worse."
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