Donald Trump claimed Thursday that the United States maintains absolute control over the Strait of Hormuz, even as Iran's seizure of two container ships and the presence of sea mines undercut that assertion.
Trump said the US Navy had locked down the crucial waterway, through which a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas passes. "No ship can enter or leave without the approval of the United States navy," he posted on Truth Social. "It is 'Sealed up Tight,' until such time as Iran is able to make a DEAL!!!"
His statement came hours after Iranian commandos boarded the Greek-owned Epaminondas and the Panamanian-flagged MSC Francesca in what Iran's Revolutionary Guard described as an action to address maritime security violations. The ships had allegedly turned off navigation transponders and were operating without proper permits.
The same day, US special forces rappelled onto the M/T Majestic X, a stateless oil tanker in the Indian Ocean that the Pentagon said was carrying Iranian crude oil.
Both sides are now maintaining competing blockades in the strait, keeping global oil prices near $100 per barrel. But the real constraint may come not from naval forces but from something harder to see. The Pentagon briefed Congress that approximately 20 mines have been placed in the waterway, some deployed from small boats and others positioned remotely, making detection difficult. Clearing all suspected mines could take up to six months, according to reporting in the Washington Post.
A Pentagon spokesperson disputed the timeframe as "inaccurate" without offering specifics. Trump responded by saying US minesweepers were operating "at a tripled up level" and that he had ordered the Navy to "shoot and kill" any vessel laying mines. "There is to be no hesitation," he added.
The dual blockades and mine threat have alarmed global energy markets. Fatih Birol, head of the International Energy Agency, called the situation "the biggest energy security threat in history" during a CNBC interview.
Trump attributed Iran's refusal to attend peace talks in Pakistan to internal divisions in Tehran. He extended an indefinite ceasefire on Tuesday at Pakistan's request, framing it as an opportunity for Iranian factions to align on a negotiating position.
"Iran is having a very hard time figuring out who their leader is," Trump said, pointing to rifts between what he described as hardliners and moderates.
Iran's current supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, took control after his father Ali was killed by Israeli missiles on February 28 in the opening strike of a joint US-Israeli attack that sparked the current conflict. According to the New York Times, Mojtaba Khamenei was also seriously wounded in that strike. Senior Iranian officials told the newspaper that despite injuries requiring multiple surgeries on his leg and hand and severe facial burns that complicate his speech, he remains "mentally sharp and engaged."
Whether internal leadership disputes actually hamper Iranian decision-making remains unclear. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps appears to exercise greater collective influence than in the past, potentially making the regime more hardline overall rather than less coordinated.
Iran said it would not return to talks while the US was violating a Pakistani-brokered ceasefire through naval blockades. Container ships from the region suggest a broader convoy of vessels had been trapped in the Gulf throughout the conflict and were attempting to exit through the strait when Iran seized the two ships.
While US forces have demonstrated the ability to intercept outbound vessels from Iranian ports, they have not yet shown capacity to open the channel to ships departing from allied Gulf state ports. The economic impact cuts both ways. The blockade strains Iran's economy but also threatens inflation and higher fuel costs for Trump heading into November's midterm elections.
Author James Rodriguez: "Trump's boast about total control looks premature when six months of mine clearing looms and Iran is still moving ships at will."
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