Indiana's state Senate primaries have erupted into a spending frenzy, with nearly $12 million in ads flooding the airwaves ahead of tomorrow's primary. The deluge transforms what would normally be routine legislative races into some of the cycle's most contentious battles, driven entirely by one man's vendetta.
President Donald Trump endorsed GOP challengers to seven incumbent state senators who voted against a redistricting plan he championed. That single decision has supercharged the political machinery in ways that dwarf previous spending patterns. During the entire 2024 election cycle, Indiana state Senate races attracted less than $500,000 in ad spending. In just one race this year, nearly $2 million has been deployed to unseat state Sen. Spencer Deery, who faces Paula Copenhaver, an aide to Indiana Lt. Gov. Micah Beckwith.
The tenor of these ads reveals just how nasty things have gotten. State Sen. Jim Buck, an 80-year-old legislator who has served since 1994 and faced no primary challenge since moving to the state Senate in 2008, is being branded "old, pathetic, liberal" in ads from Hoosier Leadership for America, a group aligned with U.S. Sen. Jim Banks. Buck's opponent is Tipton County Commissioner Tracey Powell.
What's striking is how the ads avoid the actual reason these primaries exist. Rather than hammer the incumbents for their redistricting votes, the outside groups attacking the seven senators have gotten creative, mining other legislative votes for ammunition. Hoosier Leadership PAC launched a bizarre line of attack over a farmland ownership bill, featuring a bunny and toilet paper with the line "Soft on skin, soft on bottoms" before pivoting to accusations that state Sen. Greg Walker betrayed Hoosiers by allowing Chinese companies to purchase farmland.
There's a problem with that framing. Walker and every other state senator voted to ban certain foreign adversaries, including China, from buying farmland. The ad distorts the actual vote, suggesting the ban didn't go far enough rather than accurately describing what the legislators did.
The outside money flooding these races is staggering in scale relative to the stakes. Hoosier Leadership for America has spent nearly $5 million, while American Leadership PAC, another Banks-linked group, has dropped more than $3 million. Both are overseen by Andrew Surabian, a top adviser to Donald Trump Jr. and Vice President JD Vance. The seven incumbents defending their seats have collectively spent $2.6 million in response, fighting to keep part-time positions that pay just over $33,000 annually.
Meanwhile, the Democratic side reveals a very different battle brewing. As the 2028 presidential race takes shape, the progressive left is already scrambling to determine who will inherit Bernie Sanders' political mantle and energize the millions who twice backed his insurgent campaigns.
The answer remains wide open. Interviews with more than a dozen major liberal groups, progressive activists, operatives and elected officials show no consensus forming around a single figure. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is often mentioned as a natural heir, given her singular political power and unmatched small-dollar fundraising ability. She consistently polls in the top five among Democratic leaders who might seek the presidency, and she hasn't ruled out either a Senate run or a presidential bid. But others point to Rep. Ro Khanna of California as possessing comparable progressive credentials, while several other candidates could potentially scramble the field.
Joseph Geevarghese, executive director of Our Revolution, the organization Sanders founded, said the group's 8 million members keep an "open mind" about 2028 candidates. He noted that surprising figures have emerged from nowhere before, citing newly minted New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani as an example of how the political landscape can shift unexpectedly. "I don't think the field is written," Geevarghese said.
Author Sarah Mitchell: "Trump's money blitz in Indiana shows he'll burn resources to punish anyone who crossed him on redistricting, but the real story might be whether the progressive lane in 2028 can coalesce around a single figure or splinters before the race even starts."
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