A new NBC News Decision Desk Poll reveals deepening trouble for Republicans heading into this fall's elections, with President Trump's approval rating plunging to 37 percent and core GOP constituencies showing signs of fracture.
Trump's job approval has cratered since earlier in his second term. In April and again in late May and early June, his numbers held steady at 45 percent approve and 55 percent disapprove. That stability has evaporated. The latest survey shows him at 37 percent approval with 63 percent disapproving, including a striking 50 percent who strongly disapprove. The erosion extends into his own party: Trump lost 4 points of support among Republicans since a poll conducted in late January and early February, and the share of Republicans who strongly approved of his performance dropped 6 points.
Economic anxiety is gripping voters and hitting Trump hard on a topic that dominates their concerns. Inflation and the rising cost of living emerged as the top economic issue for Americans in the survey. Trump faces brutal numbers on the question: 68 percent disapprove of how he is handling inflation and the cost of living. What's worse for Republicans is the intensity of that disapproval. The share of Americans who strongly disapprove has jumped 7 points since last summer. Even among Republicans, approval of Trump's handling of inflation dropped 10 points to 73 percent.
His foreign policy positions are underwater as well. On Iran, 67 percent of adults disapprove of his handling of the war, with 54 percent strongly disapproving. Republican disapproval stands at 74 percent. The broader sentiment is clear: 61 percent of Americans said the U.S. should not take any further military action in Iran.
Young Republicans have swung sharply pessimistic. Eight in 10 Gen Z voters ages 18 to 29 said the country is on the wrong track, a dramatic 12-point shift from last summer and fall. The movement among Gen Z Republicans is especially notable. A year ago, 67 percent of young Republicans believed the country was on the right track. In the new poll, they are split on the question.
Meanwhile, Senate Republicans are locked in internal warfare over how aggressive to go with an upcoming funding bill for immigration enforcement. Senate Majority Leader John Thune wants to keep the measure focused narrowly on ICE and Border Patrol funding. But other Republicans are pushing to load it with tax provisions and other priorities, fearing this will be their last chance to pass major legislation without Democratic votes before the midterms.
The timing pressure is real. The Department of Homeland Security is locked in a 66-day shutdown, with House Republicans refusing to vote on a broad DHS funding bill until the Senate moves on the party-line immigration measure. Trump has issued an executive order to shuffle money around to give TSA agents back pay, but without new legislation, their next paycheck remains uncertain.
Senator Ted Cruz is pushing hard to add tax provisions including capital gains indexing, calling the leadership plan an "anorexic bill." Senator Tommy Tuberville wants Iran war funding included and elements of the SAVE America Act. With Republicans holding just 53 Senate seats, leadership can afford no more than three defections. Senator Mike Lee, who authored the SAVE America Act, has insisted it was not designed for the budget process anyway.
The political calculation driving the dispute is straightforward: Republicans believe this is their only chance for a major legislative win before facing voters in midterm elections where Trump's deteriorating numbers pose real risks to their congressional majorities.
Author Sarah Mitchell: "The poll shows a Republican Party in a bind: Trump's approval is collapsing precisely when they need him most, and internal divisions over their funding bill threaten to blow up their best shot at passing anything big before the midterms."
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